CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs magic - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e88ec38d132ef1af0516da8032d9d1a0568c1b89496d854a37ca2de44a11fb2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 100 Thievesof 100 Thieves, magic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,540
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,044
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,540 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked magic | 19c | 1,354$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.7 | 3,257 | 50.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L | +98.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed magic | 19c | 1,229$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.47 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aba…47e5backed 100 Thieves | 59c | 602.35$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.23 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed magic | 17c | 441.22$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.88 | 4,228 | 49.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L | +59.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked 100 Thieves | 74c | 343.75$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.87 | 2,326 | 55.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L | +44.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked magic | 27c | 325.96$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.47 | 1,398 | 48.4%676 W · 722 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked 100 Thieves | 74c | 127.95$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.56 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcae6…6a5ebacked 100 Thieves | 79c | 125.23$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.49 | 87 | 62.1%54 W · 33 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x497f…d987backed magic | 14c | 99.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed magic | 21c | 96.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed magic | 26c | 80$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2,061 | 50.7%1,045 W · 1,016 L | -18.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa900…5acebacked magic | 20c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 159 | 35.2%56 W · 103 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe20…1fc7backed 100 Thieves | 80c | 72.54$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked 100 Thieves | 62c | 72.33$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.23 | 3,225 | 51.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L | +88.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b14…5301backed magic | 19c | 67.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4177…a2b4backed 100 Thieves | 58c | 67.23$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.24 | 1,248 | 41.3%516 W · 732 L | +5.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed magic | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 5,287 | 31.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L | -383.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed magic | 25c | 54.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 2,468 | 24.6%607 W · 1,861 L | -317.8wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed magic | 30c | 50.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 1,216 | 40.1%488 W · 728 L | -65.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x700a…58a5backed magic | 31c | 47.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 56 | 30.4%17 W · 39 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4786…ff95backed 100 Thieves | 66c | 41.59$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2df…2368backed 100 Thieves | 61c | 40.34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 117 | 50.4%59 W · 58 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0c…51dbbacked 100 Thieves | 57c | 35.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.43 | 401 | 48.4%194 W · 207 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e1…6579backed 100 Thieves | 56c | 35.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc78a…ea34backed 100 Thieves | 67c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 203 | 67%136 W · 67 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed 100 Thieves | 74c | 26.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 1,109 | 50.5%560 W · 549 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd866…55e0backed 100 Thieves | 74c | 25.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 493 | 76.1%375 W · 118 L | +96.8wins | +0.20per pick | 56cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xca29…a1d0backed 100 Thieves | 60c | 19.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 228 | 44.3%101 W · 127 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked 100 Thieves | 64c | 18.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 445 | 63.8%284 W · 161 L | +19.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs magic - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana: European Closed Qualifier Playoffsmagic won
- Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs magic - Map 2 Winnermagic won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.