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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 104-105°F on August 24?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,872
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$10,018

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,872 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xaafc…ec67backed Yes4c650$26 inLost-$2646456.5%262 W · 202 L+54.9wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+23.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes16c311.64$49 inLost-$48.7210,95237.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L+432.6wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+16%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes24c286.52$70 inLost-$7070645.8%323 W · 383 L+16.4wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38a1…3154backed Yes5c283$15 inLost-$14.982,21574%1,638 W · 577 L+18.3wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95d3…6effbacked Yes29c245.65$71 inLost-$71.1853548.2%258 W · 277 L+21.6wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9314…db74backed No80c237$189 inWon+$47.5130526.9%82 W · 223 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-21.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes26c235.08$61 inLost-$61.1210,04444.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L+257.5wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+11.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed No74c174.98$130 inWon+$45.241,69752.5%891 W · 806 L-42.5wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes19c100.51$19 inLost-$19.244,00947.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L+71.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x012f…400dbacked Yes21c100$21 inLost-$2145630%137 W · 319 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No79c83$66 inWon+$17.083,13949.6%1,558 W · 1,581 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9506…1c4fbacked No79c68.76$54 inWon+$14.4489259.8%533 W · 359 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b8c…e802backed Yes24c67.21$16 inLost-$16.419336.3%70 W · 123 L+0.9wins0.00per pick36cpaid+14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed No79c62.97$50 inWon+$13.412,20162.2%1,370 W · 831 L-0.5wins0.00per pick62cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No80c61.62$49 inWon+$12.62,27456.7%1,289 W · 985 L+65.5wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b29…f288backed Yes18c61.11$11 inLost-$1111346%52 W · 61 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No74c54.48$40 inWon+$14.314,73947.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L-186.8wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No74c51.92$38 inWon+$13.643,81065.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No71c50.43$36 inWon+$14.842,29559.3%1,360 W · 935 L+118.2wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No73c50.01$36 inWon+$13.719,96245.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L-309.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed Yes28c40.54$11 inLost-$11.352,46735.7%880 W · 1,587 L+24.6wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No78c30.18$23 inWon+$6.762,43479.4%1,933 W · 501 L+99.7wins+0.04per pick75cpaid+5.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa008…a38abacked No74c29.99$22 inWon+$7.83669.4%25 W · 11 L+3.4wins+0.10per pick60cpaid+11.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No71c29.8$21 inWon+$8.51,63260.7%990 W · 642 L-18.9wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41e6…66b7backed No76c25.8$20 inWon+$6.1957158.1%332 W · 239 L-28.3wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-10.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa393…fabebacked No78c25.64$20 inWon+$5.642281.8%18 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick74cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf06d…7dafbacked No75c23.56$18 inWon+$5.898576.5%65 W · 20 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick73cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No75c20.62$15 inWon+$5.155,25549.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L-163.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.