Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 106-107°F on August 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x465d185096c7d76a0f0ab335e82db5a0c14ecde0fa14444f92c2cf91879b7db3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,662
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,462
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,662 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe8a…79a9backed No | 0c | 24,650$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes | 70c | 597.11$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.49 | 354 | 21.5%76 W · 278 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 56c | 579.51$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.34 | 929 | 44.3%412 W · 517 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f53…4834backed Yes | 74c | 464.42$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.86 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 45c | 461.73$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.13 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 60c | 333.9$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.9 | 214 | 60.3%129 W · 85 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 56c | 312.45$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.45 | 706 | 45.8%323 W · 383 L | +16.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed Yes | 60c | 305$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.98 | 305 | 26.9%82 W · 223 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 49c | 303.22$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.72 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 43c | 253.81$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.24 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 40c | 243.51$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.62 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeec7…2fa1backed No | 43c | 226.21$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.46 | 68 | 64.7%44 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 46c | 222$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.04 | 265 | 56.2%149 W · 116 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 56c | 208.87$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.21 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecff…5645backed No | 44c | 206.08$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.09 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 50c | 188.46$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.59 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 45c | 186.97$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.95 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 14c | 167.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3079…7b77backed Yes | 78c | 158.98$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.55 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -6.2wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 40c | 135.23$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.94 | 679 | 44.6%303 W · 376 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 23c | 120.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.37 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 42c | 118.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.36 | 1,158 | 57.1%661 W · 497 L | -45.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 45c | 117.82$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 3,649 | 53.2%1,943 W · 1,706 L | +83.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 33c | 105.06$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.78 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +17.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61dd…cbd8backed No | 47c | 104.11$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 256 | 53.9%138 W · 118 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 67c | 93.41$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.16 | 576 | 54.3%313 W · 263 L | +16.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 47c | 91.96$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.59 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 47c | 90.75$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.57 | 921 | 45.6%420 W · 501 L | -29.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 63c | 89.9$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.61 | 464 | 56.5%262 W · 202 L | +54.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked Yes | 44c | 82.07$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.3 | 218 | 58.3%127 W · 91 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 48c | 79.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.52 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed No | 44c | 78.36$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.48 | 175 | 38.9%68 W · 107 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 60c | 78.1$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.35 | 466 | 40.3%188 W · 278 L | +30.4wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +11%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 55c | 77.32$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.74 | 577 | 57.7%333 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa485…7b85backed No | 65c | 76.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.9wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 50c | 75.47$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.48 | 2,340 | 58.7%1,373 W · 967 L | -4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 34c | 74.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.13 | 678 | 38.6%262 W · 416 L | +12.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 34c | 70.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d60…d955backed No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 132 | 24.2%32 W · 100 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 44c | 69$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 49c | 63.22$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 2,548 | 45.4%1,157 W · 1,391 L | +23.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373e…b868backed No | 65c | 61.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 46c | 55.95$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdae8…4736backed Yes | 40c | 55.41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.06 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x637d…7df1backed Yes | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed Yes | 51c | 53.58$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.12 | 189 | 52.4%99 W · 90 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 53c | 52$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 1,196 | 50.8%608 W · 588 L | -27.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb1…4897backed Yes | 58c | 51.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 3,810 | 65.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 38c | 48.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 2,283 | 58.3%1,331 W · 952 L | +85.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 42c | 43.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 2,254 | 58.2%1,311 W · 943 L | +84.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 42c | 42.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 46c | 41.94$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.65 | 446 | 44.6%199 W · 247 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 48c | 41.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 3,201 | 53.6%1,716 W · 1,485 L | -101.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 43c | 36.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 2,216 | 56.8%1,258 W · 958 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 43c | 35.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1,805 | 50.4%910 W · 895 L | +40.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7861…3084backed Yes | 66c | 35.71$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 163 | 70.6%115 W · 48 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 35c | 34.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 1,177 | 34.9%411 W · 766 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 39c | 34.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 2,254 | 56.9%1,283 W · 971 L | +69.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 46c | 33.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 346 | 67.6%234 W · 112 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 45c | 33.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 202 | 55.4%112 W · 90 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 44c | 32.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 1,244 | 61.7%767 W · 477 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 35c | 31.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 814 | 57.5%468 W · 346 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 216 | 56%121 W · 95 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…76aebacked Yes | 65c | 29.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 39c | 28.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 2,250 | 57%1,282 W · 968 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3832…87f3backed No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 71cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 49c | 26.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 2,189 | 59.7%1,306 W · 883 L | +26.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c28…66b0backed Yes | 50c | 25.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 53c | 25.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 7,592 | 37.5%2,849 W · 4,743 L | +96.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…a380backed No | 49c | 25.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -6.3wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0506…bc49backed Yes | 60c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 54c | 23.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 439 | 47.6%209 W · 230 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 68c | 23.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 450 | 59.1%266 W · 184 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 47c | 22.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 1,154 | 25%289 W · 865 L | +30.0wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 48c | 21.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 2,274 | 56.7%1,289 W · 985 L | +65.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 4,032 | 35.6%1,436 W · 2,596 L | +42.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb884…19c1backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 79 | 40.5%32 W · 47 L | -7.3wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 265 | 57.7%153 W · 112 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c3…f0a1backed No | 51c | 19.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -4.8wins | -0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 56c | 18.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 782 | 55.4%433 W · 349 L | -12.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dc…48fabacked No | 75c | 18.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 147 | 42.2%62 W · 85 L | -10.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed Yes | 80c | 17.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.49 | 222 | 65.3%145 W · 77 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 62c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 686 | 58.6%402 W · 284 L | +51.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x414a…253ebacked No | 69c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 66 | 75.8%50 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 106-107°F on August 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 104-105°F on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 108-109°F on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 110-111°F on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 112-113°F on August 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.