Tennis · resolved market
Wimbledon: Kasatkina vs. Samsonova (W)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e9d72cb39e02999daff1220353ef8fabcd37f2d4f40b0a446c787e4039016a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Samsonovaof Kasatkina, Samsonova
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,580
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,196
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,580 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf557…18debacked Samsonova | 69c | 7,463$5,129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,333.92 | 63 | 76.2%48 W · 15 L | +11.0wins | +0.17per pick | 59cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Kasatkina | 6c | 3,600$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…32f2backed Kasatkina | 32c | 2,675$856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$855.92 | 528 | 44.7%236 W · 292 L | +30.8wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2360…1c1cbacked Kasatkina | 21c | 2,297$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 88 | 31.8%28 W · 60 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Kasatkina | 31c | 1,662$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.41 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Kasatkina | 30c | 1,130$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.03 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Samsonova | 79c | 1,000$795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.1 | 321 | 41.1%132 W · 189 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Samsonova | 70c | 1,000$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1331…3d82backed Samsonova | 68c | 788$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.16 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.8wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Kasatkina | 32c | 788$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.16 | 391 | 44.2%173 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Kasatkina | 32c | 500$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 316 | 50%158 W · 158 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbc…a89cbacked Kasatkina | 31c | 400$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Kasatkina | 31c | 300$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 1,212 | 33.1%401 W · 811 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Kasatkina | 34c | 297.63$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Kasatkina | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd4…ce48backed Kasatkina | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7420…4567backed Kasatkina | 11c | 227.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed Samsonova | 68c | 179.78$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.58 | 177 | 67.2%119 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Kasatkina | 32c | 174.78$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.93 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Samsonova | 66c | 134.92$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.87 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x412a…802cbacked Samsonova | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed Kasatkina | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 204 | 31.4%64 W · 140 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe870…6bf8backed Samsonova | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10f4…3b7ebacked Samsonova | 70c | 43.04$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.04 | 130 | 44.6%58 W · 72 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x393d…7084backed Kasatkina | 32c | 37.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeacf…ed1dbacked Kasatkina | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -4.2wins | -0.35per pick | 51cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed Samsonova | 69c | 28.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 65 | 60%39 W · 26 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.