World Politics · resolved market
Will Trump make Canadians visiting U.S. register before April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9ec7fa5556026f687efe08951472514c78bcb0caddf02a708fc07d858855bb71
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,820
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,609
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,820 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed No | 31c | 1,034$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked Yes | 70c | 1,000$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +112.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4bd3…8c6fbacked No | 15c | 799.53$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.82 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc158…f3cabacked No | 16c | 627.28$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1815…15dbbacked No | 11c | 301.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9898…a113backed No | 11c | 176.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 53c | 164.49$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.51 | 114 | 35.1%40 W · 74 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 203 | 28.6%58 W · 145 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 53c | 149.52$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.93 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8182…7cf5backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8f…162cbacked Yes | 63c | 85$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.3 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9998…e858backed Yes | 31c | 59.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.35 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…9fd1backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x541f…0130backed No | 76c | 39.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38cc…f88ebacked Yes | 60c | 37.94$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…d366backed No | 79c | 21.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.