TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 12.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,026
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,138

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,026 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbca0…9705backed Under54c7,903$4,277 inLost-$4,277.258,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Over46c7,417$3,402 inWon+$4,015.274,27947.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L-83.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over47c823.06$386 inWon+$436.849,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x815f…1eefbacked Under57c708.64$404 inLost-$403.9291252.4%478 W · 434 L+12.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under51c436.05$221 inLost-$220.9212,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over46c360.73$166 inWon+$194.363,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over58c218.58$127 inWon+$91.956,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Under75c209.86$157 inLost-$157.3411,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over46c168.49$78 inWon+$90.988,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedf7…4003backed Over24c119.92$29 inWon+$91.1441637.5%156 W · 260 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-8.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x435d…c52abacked Over24c101.67$24 inWon+$77.2767444.1%297 W · 377 L+27.8wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+12.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Over45c59.21$27 inWon+$32.422,58361.4%1,587 W · 996 L+70.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3894…decfbacked Under59c56.8$34 inLost-$33.5137551.2%192 W · 183 L-0.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over24c54.5$13 inWon+$41.421,70849.9%852 W · 856 L-17.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8193…8c82backed Over48c50$24 inWon+$262955.2%16 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc85…aa54backed Under54c40.57$22 inLost-$21.9124243%104 W · 138 L-12.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb0a0…3bd3backed Under53c37.4$20 inLost-$19.8230%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb07e…0df5backed Under55c28.4$16 inLost-$15.6299744.1%440 W · 557 L-38.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb7a8…9c50backed Under58c22.71$13 inLost-$13.136746.3%31 W · 36 L-6.0wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-13.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa05a…4635backed Over47c22.67$11 inWon+$11.9783053%440 W · 390 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8263…e0f1backed Under54c20.67$11 inLost-$11.0834754.8%190 W · 157 L+12.5wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1631…072dbacked Under61c20.65$13 inLost-$12.6577353.9%417 W · 356 L+35.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x15a7…5ed1backed Under57c20.26$12 inLost-$11.5524263.6%154 W · 88 L+12.5wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+7.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6c16…66cebacked Over70c15.5$11 inWon+$4.6366056.2%371 W · 289 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.