MLB · resolved market
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d469cb1588c26bdfce1a8a08d3130c7b08a8c7fcd95634cfe388c31cdceb213
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $109,880
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $110,467
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $109,880 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 51c | 56,109$28,766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,765.74 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 46c | 44,795$20,605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,189.04 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Over | 45c | 22,762$10,243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,519.35 | 550 | 53.1%292 W · 258 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a2…ae70backed Under | 55c | 21,464$11,805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,805.2 | 116 | 56.9%66 W · 50 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72d8…5213backed Over | 47c | 17,798$8,365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,432.92 | 66 | 62.1%41 W · 25 L | +9.2wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 53c | 8,816$4,673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,672.65 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 46c | 6,052$2,784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,268.16 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6498…8910backed Over | 52c | 4,000$2,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,920 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 53c | 3,810$2,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,005.61 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 48c | 2,799$1,344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,343.64 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 54c | 2,000$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,079.97 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 53c | 1,600$855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$855.27 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2bf…04d7backed Over | 47c | 1,261$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$668.31 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…960fbacked Under | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 859 | 52.6%452 W · 407 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…2adfbacked Under | 55c | 909.09$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -27%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 53c | 766.43$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.01 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 46c | 628$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.02 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd871…6bbabacked Over | 46c | 608.17$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.41 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 58c | 518.52$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.67 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8884…3457backed Over | 48c | 513.08$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.8 | 281 | 54.4%153 W · 128 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 52c | 426.65$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.66 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Over | 46c | 244$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.76 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 62c | 225.69$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.29 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Under | 53c | 180$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.22 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa65c…509dbacked Over | 46c | 163.04$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.04 | 243 | 50.2%122 W · 121 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 55c | 150$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 52c | 149.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.49 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Over | 46c | 144.3$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.92 | 264 | 38.3%101 W · 163 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 55c | 119.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.4 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6210…4fb1backed Over | 47c | 106$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.18 | 147 | 59.9%88 W · 59 L | +14.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaf93…5d2abacked Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 61c | 90$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 51c | 86.52$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.79 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 54c | 76.95$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.55 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc98b…c6f3backed Over | 48c | 76.26$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.66 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Over | 48c | 75.23$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.91 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Under | 41c | 65.69$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Over | 46c | 65.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.36 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 23c | 60.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Under | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 556 | 43.9%244 W · 312 L | -38.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb90…c03dbacked Over | 46c | 48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 63c | 43.97$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.37 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab4…5a40backed Over | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 162 | 51.9%84 W · 78 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Over | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +18.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 26c | 42.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e4…a9cfbacked Under | 42c | 28.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb208…e0b2backed Under | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5b…acdcbacked Under | 55c | 27.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.8wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x58c6…eeb6backed Over | 76c | 25.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 159 | 42.8%68 W · 91 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a80…2dadbacked Over | 46c | 22.55$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 76 | 52.6%40 W · 36 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…f7dfbacked Over | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 211 | 49.3%104 W · 107 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde0f…a4e7backed Under | 54c | 19.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 71c | 15.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 11.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 12.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 13.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 14.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis CardinalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.