Mls · resolved market
Spread: San Diego FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f0e86309886601e5bea562a6e69887de0a428ab7bded6203f8535399081d88c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Diego FCof San Diego FC, St. Louis City SC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,092
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,158
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,092 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed San Diego FC | 40c | 2,914$1,159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,755.62 | 133 | 47.4%63 W · 70 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed St. Louis City SC | 59c | 1,521$905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$904.51 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked St. Louis City SC | 57c | 655.3$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.16 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed St. Louis City SC | 60c | 416.67$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed St. Louis City SC | 60c | 300$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 153 | 41.2%63 W · 90 L | -14.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -24%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed St. Louis City SC | 60c | 250$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4300…5c69backed San Diego FC | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked San Diego FC | 32c | 97$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.96 | 99 | 57.6%57 W · 42 L | +13.1wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…bb62backed San Diego FC | 57c | 91.16$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed St. Louis City SC | 61c | 44.81$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.33 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0568…d5a7backed St. Louis City SC | 61c | 43.66$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5558…f9c4backed San Diego FC | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed St. Louis City SC | 62c | 22.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Diego FC (-1.5)this page
- San Diego FC vs. St. Louis City SC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- San Diego FC vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 1.5Over won
- San Diego FC vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 2.5Under won
- San Diego FC vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 3.5Under won
- San Diego FC vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: St. Louis City SC (-1.5)San Diego FC won
- Spread: St. Louis City SC (-2.5)San Diego FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.