UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Will Buckley win by KO/TKO?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f1f05b9b72fc84681f8137b77b6f67ddbe68fa5d6c0992b477de6b03bb61d06
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,664
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,804
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,664 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 58c | 480.4$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.32 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2728…4f96backed Yes | 42c | 298.8$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed No | 57c | 244.08$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Yes | 36c | 215.6$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.96 | 339 | 48.1%163 W · 176 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd189…06f4backed No | 64c | 200$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc85…c8c3backed Yes | 42c | 192.38$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -68%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked No | 60c | 180.36$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.75 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +7.2wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…24babacked Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cec…abb3backed Yes | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes | 40c | 75.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 246 | 49.6%122 W · 124 L | +14.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62e2…7b24backed Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x571f…04f5backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fc7…f7e0backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4986…8bc9backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 76cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1752…7993backed No | 64c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Will Buckley win by KO/TKO?this page
- UFC Fight Night: Will Buckley win by points?No won
- UFC Fight Night: Will Buckley win by submission?No won
- UFC Fight Night: Will Usman win by KO/TKO?No won
- UFC Fight Night: Will Usman win by points? Yes won
- UFC Fight Night: Will Usman win by submission? No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.