NBA · resolved market
NBA Finals G3: Will SGA score 35+ points against the Pacers?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9fa59b11bc6e030137609246b55155b1499fdace7862e6fd11e3e2775f298745
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,903
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,814
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,903 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked No | 51c | 13,627$6,990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,637.02 | 168 | 44%74 W · 94 L | -11.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -10%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 48c | 10,248$4,917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,916.7 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Yes | 49c | 10,018$4,908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,907.86 | 801 | 46.4%372 W · 429 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 53c | 7,424$3,935 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,489.26 | 701 | 47.8%335 W · 366 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed No | 52c | 5,891$3,063 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,827.68 | 192 | 49.5%95 W · 97 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Yes | 47c | 2,500$1,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,175 | 795 | 49.7%395 W · 400 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked No | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…58c4backed No | 51c | 800$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392 | 768 | 50.3%386 W · 382 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x433b…58debacked No | 53c | 392.03$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.25 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e0…fd91backed Yes | 49c | 215$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 617 | 40.7%251 W · 366 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed Yes | 46c | 199.99$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +12.8wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…0ee5backed No | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 286 | 51.4%147 W · 139 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes | 44c | 177.84$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.39 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84fd…2f81backed No | 55c | 137.5$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.3 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9e…547dbacked No | 54c | 125.48$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.72 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc430…3c45backed Yes | 49c | 103$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.47 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf363…45e0backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae30…d0a3backed No | 54c | 92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.32 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +7.7wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed No | 52c | 79$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…a8e7backed No | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 317 | 48.9%155 W · 162 L | -12.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf16c…57d6backed Yes | 48c | 71$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.08 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c9…bb9ebacked Yes | 46c | 58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4919…0c56backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 104 | 50%52 W · 52 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d7…94e9backed No | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Yes | 46c | 39.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed No | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 574 | 44.1%253 W · 321 L | -20.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…0f78backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe156…d7a6backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.