Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 12°C on April 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9fa6f7d02a48419cd17d382f81b0600d0f84d68b660206cface72880e6288bd5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,914
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,979
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,914 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e21…dbe4backed Yes | 44c | 538.14$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.96 | 81 | 27.2%22 W · 59 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 473.32$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.23 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed30…87b1backed Yes | 31c | 458.11$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.27 | 185 | 49.7%92 W · 93 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 26c | 381.07$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.82 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 28c | 314.95$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.68 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf387…5414backed Yes | 5c | 259.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 30c | 204.78$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.19 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 9c | 196.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 79c | 185.81$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.74 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 22c | 169.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.34 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 68c | 143.36$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.27 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4d…57b9backed Yes | 44c | 99.43$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.75 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 33c | 93.01$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebcc…c44dbacked Yes | 37c | 85.42$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.83 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 24c | 80.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x642b…f9a3backed Yes | 36c | 78.58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.07 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes | 47c | 73.06$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.48 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1aa…de3abacked Yes | 33c | 72.41$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 33c | 70.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 80c | 68.7$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 66c | 64.45$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.93 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 20c | 64.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes | 31c | 64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d5…9f2abacked Yes | 35c | 60.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 68c | 59.29$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 80c | 59.28$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…9936backed No | 67c | 58.05$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 100 | 59%59 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 25c | 55.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 48c | 54.04$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.03 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed No | 61c | 51.81$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5278…5306backed Yes | 35c | 50.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 149 | 41.6%62 W · 87 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf48c…8ec6backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…eabbbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 239 | 23.4%56 W · 183 L | -17.1wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 34c | 47.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb17…0cd7backed Yes | 54c | 44.81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 36c | 43.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.94 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 55c | 39.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x558e…cdabbacked Yes | 35c | 38.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked Yes | 61c | 36.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c66…f4d3backed No | 67c | 36.07$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 247 | 70%173 W · 74 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x600c…8bd4backed Yes | 41c | 34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed No | 41c | 33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 48c | 32.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 57c | 20.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d89…5382backed No | 66c | 19.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 68c | 15.19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 12°C on April 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 10°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 11°C on April 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C or higher on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 9°C on April 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.