College Football · resolved market
Spread: USC (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9fe7b3046ef8582fa9975e0ea8b5563fb72497376f2a75a8ea1ba38d923b05a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nebraska Cornhuskersof USC, Nebraska Cornhuskers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,092
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,072
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,092 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Nebraska Cornhuskers | 57c | 3,554$2,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,543.76 | 290 | 55.2%160 W · 130 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Nebraska Cornhuskers | 53c | 1,572$830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$742.1 | 243 | 48.1%117 W · 126 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed USC | 45c | 1,466$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.36 | 342 | 50.3%172 W · 170 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde91…f20abacked USC | 43c | 1,000$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked USC | 43c | 1,000$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 526 | 41.8%220 W · 306 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked USC | 44c | 619$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked USC | 47c | 420$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.82 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…68fcbacked USC | 47c | 400$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 471 | 31.4%148 W · 323 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b02…f3d9backed USC | 44c | 269$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.36 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcca5…6d0cbacked USC | 46c | 225.04$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.52 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed USC | 44c | 168$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.92 | 632 | 43.7%276 W · 356 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1321…2286backed Nebraska Cornhuskers | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x258e…d16cbacked Nebraska Cornhuskers | 56c | 133.93$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.93 | 174 | 50%87 W · 87 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Nebraska Cornhuskers | 51c | 103.15$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.33 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +21.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4e…18debacked Nebraska Cornhuskers | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f55…535dbacked USC | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Nebraska Cornhuskers | 56c | 62.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 167 | 50.3%84 W · 83 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b47…5286backed USC | 45c | 44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 100 | 49%49 W · 51 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc54d…cce3backed USC | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed USC | 45c | 39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked USC | 47c | 36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 268 | 46.3%124 W · 144 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: USC (-6.5)this page
- O/U 59.5Under won
- Spread: USC (-4.5)Nebraska Cornhuskers won
- Spread: USC (-5.5)Nebraska Cornhuskers won
- USC vs. Nebraska CornhuskersUSC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.