CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Mindfreak vs Arcade Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Wildcard LAN Group B
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9ffe83fd8d4bd965c2b404f90d4c8bcee447c5325c8970cbc9f7f153fe712a98
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mindfreakof Mindfreak, Arcade Esports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,573
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,573 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked Mindfreak | 79c | 2,066$1,624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.21 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Arcade Esports | 45c | 955.06$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.3 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Arcade Esports | 2c | 927.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5978…aec4backed Mindfreak | 55c | 599.99$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 229 | 38%87 W · 142 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd73e…bb87backed Mindfreak | 55c | 460$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207 | 138 | 57.2%79 W · 59 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf6…b779backed Arcade Esports | 21c | 321.57$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.1 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Arcade Esports | 22c | 300$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Arcade Esports | 21c | 244.29$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.39 | 1,714 | 46.7%801 W · 913 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Arcade Esports | 21c | 202.12$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.94 | 972 | 30%292 W · 680 L | -23.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed Arcade Esports | 21c | 184.48$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.74 | 1,411 | 33.7%475 W · 936 L | +42.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7786…c005backed Arcade Esports | 21c | 161.2$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.85 | 223 | 42.2%94 W · 129 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51ad…5e56backed Mindfreak | 62c | 160.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.68 | 115 | 38.3%44 W · 71 L | -15.6wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Arcade Esports | 20c | 157.06$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.41 | 169 | 45%76 W · 93 L | +10.0wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a35…6fe0backed Arcade Esports | 24c | 132.2$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 178 | 37.6%67 W · 111 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8945…640bbacked Arcade Esports | 38c | 114.72$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.23 | 262 | 57.6%151 W · 111 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Arcade Esports | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 719 | 51%367 W · 352 L | +28.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1769…94efbacked Mindfreak | 63c | 110$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.1 | 916 | 48.9%448 W · 468 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Arcade Esports | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,281 | 37.8%484 W · 797 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xced8…221ebacked Arcade Esports | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 700 | 38.9%272 W · 428 L | -29.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca81…f2abbacked Arcade Esports | 23c | 81.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 357 | 44.3%158 W · 199 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Mindfreak | 78c | 62.51$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.66 | 872 | 44.8%391 W · 481 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6330…1444backed Arcade Esports | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Arcade Esports | 41c | 49.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeda…001ebacked Mindfreak | 56c | 47.19$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.62 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf2…1e5bbacked Arcade Esports | 39c | 44.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 238 | 58%138 W · 100 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x880e…4637backed Arcade Esports | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Mindfreak | 59c | 39.59$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.23 | 459 | 56.9%261 W · 198 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe6d…9d6abacked Arcade Esports | 41c | 39.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Arcade Esports | 43c | 28.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x537a…7447backed Mindfreak | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8643…82a0backed Arcade Esports | 53c | 22.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f50…e59ebacked Mindfreak | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 117 | 58.1%68 W · 49 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x845e…3ed3backed Mindfreak | 71c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 61cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Mindfreak vs Arcade Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Wildcard LAN Group Bthis page
- Counter-Strike: Mindfreak vs Arcade Esports - Map 1 WinnerArcade Esports won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.