Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: 1WIN (-1.5) vs Vici Gaming (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa008a3bb1bd70552f8684dba8ac7d9dfe9e6cbb7422e6193f1948fb611a4a024
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 1winof 1win, Vici Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,973
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,294
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,973 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x631a…a80fbacked Vici Gaming | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 205 | 42.9%88 W · 117 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdce3…7537backed 1win | 48c | 315.85$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.92 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Vici Gaming | 59c | 252$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.34 | 267 | 41.9%112 W · 155 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3e…7befbacked Vici Gaming | 59c | 120$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.8 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed1…fd2abacked 1win | 41c | 119.41$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.05 | 227 | 38.3%87 W · 140 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x871f…3330backed 1win | 42c | 117$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.09 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15d1…ccfebacked 1win | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 546 | 59.7%326 W · 220 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed 1win | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 55 | 65.5%36 W · 19 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2d…fb60backed Vici Gaming | 61c | 70$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.8 | 504 | 44%222 W · 282 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc62f…2958backed Vici Gaming | 72c | 69.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.17 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95e9…67b6backed 1win | 52c | 63.65$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 185 | 50.8%94 W · 91 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d08…5d9fbacked Vici Gaming | 48c | 53.65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a2…a9bfbacked Vici Gaming | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 194 | 55.7%108 W · 86 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…2864backed 1win | 39c | 49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.01 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Vici Gaming | 52c | 46.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0633…355abacked 1win | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 116 | 43.1%50 W · 66 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23d3…fc0ebacked 1win | 37c | 37.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.34 | 125 | 44%55 W · 70 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5000…c2bebacked 1win | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed Vici Gaming | 63c | 29.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf557…f164backed Vici Gaming | 50c | 22.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked 1win | 51c | 20.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 165 | 53.3%88 W · 77 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: 1WIN (-1.5) vs Vici Gaming (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: 1win vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - 1win Essence Playoffs1win won
- Dota 2: 1win vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner1win won
- Dota 2: 1win vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner1win won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.