Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on March 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa0300d6403581e082af57ebf3227b7ebb5b6363981949446aaf275be857f96eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,374
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,374 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xad92…af55backed Yes | 4c | 2,954$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.93 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes | 7c | 1,127$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.75 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e16…e908backed Yes | 4c | 662.9$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.68 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed Yes | 2c | 574.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 450$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.59 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd464…b175backed Yes | 5c | 235.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b59…f71cbacked Yes | 37c | 231.33$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.61 | 112 | 33.9%38 W · 74 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 234 | 7.3%17 W · 217 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 21c | 186.75$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.76 | 165 | 20.6%34 W · 131 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 15c | 158.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 72c | 145.86$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.53 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 20c | 143.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.15 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 9c | 129.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 70c | 116.5$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.87 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…e9d8backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 17c | 90$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 15c | 89.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0a…bb29backed Yes | 19c | 87.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 77.59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 27c | 73.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f7…fd31backed Yes | 15c | 72.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 20c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 33c | 60.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 77c | 57$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No | 79c | 53.23$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a84…e23abacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 31c | 48.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 36c | 47.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa16a…57d5backed Yes | 26c | 46.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 74c | 44.27$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2547…f3abbacked No | 73c | 40.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 73c | 31.15$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a15…76afbacked No | 72c | 28.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -10.2wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b9…3377backed No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 140 | 71.4%100 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 76c | 26.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b2…319bbacked No | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 27 | 77.8%21 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 70c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1479…eb67backed No | 67c | 17.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 80c | 17.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bab…72ddbacked No | 72c | 15.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on March 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on March 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 32°C or higher on March 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.