NHL · resolved market

Spread: Ducks (-1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa03d39136553ad54846af2aed1edf895ed9ee5ca1821d40b1661b555117f87f0

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Predatorsof Ducks, Predators
Resolved: Apr 16, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $9,834
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $11,064

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,834 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NHL
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x20d6…3856backed Ducks	8c	2,032$162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$162.24	268	49.6%133 W · 135 L	+5.9wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	+8.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Predators	67c	1,210$811 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$399.29	619	59.1%366 W · 253 L	+17.9wins	+0.03per pick	56cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb9fb…8feebacked Ducks	33c	1,150$379 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$379.32	190	50.5%96 W · 94 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x95b7…d633backed Ducks	8c	938.23$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.06	261	54%141 W · 120 L	+7.4wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+11.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Ducks	12c	651.53$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.13	2,314	46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L	-7.5wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x041b…d3ebbacked Ducks	34c	589.57$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$198.09	33	42.4%14 W · 19 L	-2.9wins	-0.09per pick	51cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x308d…3519backed Predators	56c	248.78$139 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$109.56	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	58cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9438…3d6abacked Predators	67c	239.65$161 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$79.08	177	61.6%109 W · 68 L	+5.4wins	+0.03per pick	59cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Predators	69c	238.72$165 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$74	335	54%181 W · 154 L	+13.3wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+8.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbaac…ff10backed Predators	70c	228.05$159 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$68.95	11	72.7%8 W · 3 L	+1.0wins	+0.09per pick	63cpaid	+13.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc866…8c6dbacked Ducks	20c	227.05$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.25	92	31.5%29 W · 63 L	-12.7wins	-0.14per pick	45cpaid	-43.1%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Ducks	28c	200$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	3,704	50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L	+105.5wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	-4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Ducks	40c	193.54$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.87	2,112	42.9%907 W · 1,205 L	-10.1wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x20e5…d3bcbacked Predators	70c	175.95$123 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.79	95	45.3%43 W · 52 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x299f…2140backed Predators	66c	168.18$111 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.18	388	49.5%192 W · 196 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Predators	69c	165.88$114 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.42	229	46.3%106 W · 123 L	-9.0wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa877…2e20backed Predators	68c	152.46$104 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.79	363	49%178 W · 185 L	-6.2wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Ducks	32c	146.95$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.02	2,754	47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L	+11.9wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed Ducks	34c	141.24$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.02	403	40.9%165 W · 238 L	-4.9wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc08…6b85backed Ducks	31c	125.71$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.97	175	53.1%93 W · 82 L	+6.0wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xab41…c453backed Ducks	44c	114.3$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.67	1,431	58.3%834 W · 597 L	+81.0wins	+0.06per pick	53cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcec1…9c0cbacked Predators	54c	113.38$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.16	385	51.4%198 W · 187 L	+16.7wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Ducks	31c	95.86$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.72	282	51.8%146 W · 136 L	+8.9wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x239d…daebbacked Ducks	31c	57.82$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.8	91	56%51 W · 40 L	-2.7wins	-0.03per pick	59cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Predators	54c	52.15$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.76	305	49.2%150 W · 155 L	-14.1wins	-0.05per pick	54cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8af8…adc5backed Predators	73c	50.75$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.77	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	56cpaid	-31.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d85…2560backed Ducks	32c	50$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.1	164	43.3%71 W · 93 L	-15.5wins	-0.09per pick	53cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xac50…d728backed Ducks	33c	43.63$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.4	21	28.6%6 W · 15 L	-4.0wins	-0.19per pick	48cpaid	-41.3%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4533…e6bbbacked Predators	56c	43.46$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.12	23	52.2%12 W · 11 L	+1.6wins	+0.07per pick	45cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbdf4…c6ccbacked Predators	69c	42.74$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.3	71	45.1%32 W · 39 L	-4.9wins	-0.07per pick	52cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x57c8…3d9bbacked Ducks	36c	40$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.3	45	35.6%16 W · 29 L	-8.2wins	-0.18per pick	54cpaid	-41.8%equal weight	37-0.12 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Predators	72c	39.33$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.05	1,202	60.1%722 W · 480 L	+51.9wins	+0.04per pick	56cpaid	+15%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd173…bfaebacked Ducks	31c	37.48$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.62	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.6wins	+0.16per pick	34cpaid	+38.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed Ducks	31c	32.26$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	147	43.5%64 W · 83 L	-6.1wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7521…c083backed Predators	59c	28.05$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.48	23	65.2%15 W · 8 L	+2.1wins	+0.09per pick	56cpaid	+15%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Predators	71c	23.41$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.78	1,846	57.2%1,055 W · 791 L	+85.0wins	+0.05per pick	53cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x32ad…71acbacked Predators	67c	19.6$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.47	18	61.1%11 W · 7 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	59cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x441d…544dbacked Predators	70c	16.3$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.89	94	31.9%30 W · 64 L	-6.5wins	-0.07per pick	39cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Ducks (-1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event