NHL · resolved market
Ducks vs. Predators: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb2bb7c4fa264ff21d28591d5d858535307062d33dd3d93befeb0f42a869b1e46
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,638
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,935
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,638 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Under | 4c | 1,750$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +210.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 38c | 444.35$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.96 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 69c | 435.36$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 254 | 49.6%126 W · 128 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f12…3e35backed Over | 36c | 400$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.42 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5741…fb99backed Under | 36c | 309.17$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 65c | 300$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Over | 64c | 279.17$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.5 | 268 | 49.6%133 W · 135 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 37c | 256.03$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.83 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d53…2735backed Under | 64c | 195.63$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Under | 61c | 192.7$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.2 | 295 | 33.6%99 W · 196 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc0…af1abacked Over | 48c | 190.25$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.72 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7193…ae51backed Under | 72c | 181.96$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.01 | 63 | 71.4%45 W · 18 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 27c | 177.04$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.96 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 35c | 160.01$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.41 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.5 | 604 | 49.2%297 W · 307 L | -17.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Under | 49c | 81.74$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 695 | 50.1%348 W · 347 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c37…39babacked Over | 65c | 70$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Under | 35c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 38c | 65.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.78 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 64c | 61.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.64 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Under | 66c | 60$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.69 | 164 | 43.3%71 W · 93 L | -15.5wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…d824backed Over | 30c | 55.27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.77 | 100 | 33%33 W · 67 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…3d6abacked Under | 70c | 53.84$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.69 | 177 | 61.6%109 W · 68 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 50c | 50.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 74c | 49.91$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 214 | 63.1%135 W · 79 L | +16.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +11%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6326…6329backed Under | 62c | 45.24$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 52c | 36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 345 | 47.8%165 W · 180 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…9487backed Under | 46c | 32.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59ce…6f07backed Over | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 153 | 49%75 W · 78 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 52c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 513 | 43.3%222 W · 291 L | -21.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc749…799ebacked Under | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 54c | 19.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab4…55cdbacked Under | 72c | 14.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x550c…70febacked Under | 72c | 14.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2388…2b93backed Under | 76c | 14.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x158f…0643backed Under | 76c | 13.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ducks vs. Predators: O/U 7.5this page
- Ducks vs. PredatorsDucks won
- Ducks vs. Predators: O/U 4.5Over won
- Ducks vs. Predators: O/U 5.5Over won
- Ducks vs. Predators: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Ducks (-1.5)Predators won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.