NHL · resolved market
Ducks vs. Predators: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc87a74eb070dd628564d5e774e8cd3a3e2f7573dd3283037cb016981487daa6d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,550
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,283
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,550 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xea79…a9ccbacked Over | 63c | 3,451$2,173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,277.8 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd7…6d6cbacked Over | 63c | 3,229$2,045 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,183.34 | 152 | 65.1%99 W · 53 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 37c | 3,011$1,104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,104.11 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 37c | 2,221$817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$817.09 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 64c | 2,047$1,319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$727.91 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2071…e579backed Under | 38c | 1,682$631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$631 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…3d6abacked Under | 36c | 860.1$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.67 | 177 | 61.6%109 W · 68 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 63c | 666.67$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.67 | 472 | 56.8%268 W · 204 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…3231backed Under | 36c | 548.05$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 37c | 500$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 111 | 52.3%58 W · 53 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 37c | 495$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.16 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fb…8feebacked Over | 64c | 473$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.28 | 190 | 50.5%96 W · 94 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 37c | 324$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.08 | 538 | 49.4%266 W · 272 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 67c | 290$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.6 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7a…bc22backed Under | 39c | 258.79$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.93 | 358 | 29.3%105 W · 253 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Under | 37c | 246.36$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.69 | 565 | 53.6%303 W · 262 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed Under | 37c | 160.72$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.15 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x505a…bb61backed Over | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Under | 36c | 156.25$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.25 | 388 | 49.5%192 W · 196 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Under | 36c | 134.12$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.28 | 106 | 63.2%67 W · 39 L | +7.7wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked Under | 36c | 120.72$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.46 | 103 | 46.6%48 W · 55 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 22c | 117.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.33 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Over | 63c | 104.08$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.08 | 696 | 53.4%372 W · 324 L | -16.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1150…abe0backed Over | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 34 | 76.5%26 W · 8 L | +5.6wins | +0.16per pick | 60cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 38c | 75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 211 | 55.5%117 W · 94 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5b…efbebacked Over | 63c | 74.68$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.68 | 121 | 50.4%61 W · 60 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Under | 36c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 164 | 43.3%71 W · 93 L | -15.5wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 604 | 49.2%297 W · 307 L | -17.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Under | 38c | 43.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 456 | 51.5%235 W · 221 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…9a2fbacked Under | 36c | 43.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 267 | 50.2%134 W · 133 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…d824backed Under | 41c | 40.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 100 | 33%33 W · 67 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Under | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 695 | 50.1%348 W · 347 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…a8e9backed Over | 63c | 37.11$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.73 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 38c | 33.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 276 | 59.4%164 W · 112 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd22f…d0eebacked Over | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 36c | 31.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde7f…5a1dbacked Over | 64c | 31.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ee…0f22backed Under | 36c | 28.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Under | 37c | 27.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 145 | 51%74 W · 71 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Over | 62c | 27.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10fe…9af6backed Under | 38c | 27.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ducks vs. Predators: O/U 5.5this page
- Ducks vs. PredatorsDucks won
- Ducks vs. Predators: O/U 4.5Over won
- Ducks vs. Predators: O/U 6.5Over won
- Ducks vs. Predators: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Ducks (-1.5)Predators won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.