Tennis · resolved market
Valencia: Matteo Berrettini vs Taro Daniel
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa087d35b9026ea5801506ab96843ee664c480a7689c10f1aeac8c33363345bf3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Matteo Berrettiniof Matteo Berrettini, Taro Daniel
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,938
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $87,939
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,938 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x38c2…d3a7backed Matteo Berrettini | 76c | 13,112$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,111.59 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Taro Daniel | 17c | 10,724$1,807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,807.29 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Taro Daniel | 17c | 6,564$1,113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,113.02 | 4,185 | 44.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Taro Daniel | 20c | 4,752$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$949.7 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Matteo Berrettini | 77c | 3,649$2,811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$838.43 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Taro Daniel | 15c | 3,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9527…f108backed Taro Daniel | 1c | 1,287$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 527 | 39.3%207 W · 320 L | +37.6wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe85d…ad4bbacked Taro Daniel | 15c | 1,164$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.37 | 196 | 26%51 W · 145 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb3…8e52backed Taro Daniel | 26c | 1,154$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Taro Daniel | 15c | 1,108$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.2 | 538 | 43.5%234 W · 304 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc20f…ab16backed Taro Daniel | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa6…83f9backed Taro Daniel | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 454 | 45.4%206 W · 248 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa664…f849backed Taro Daniel | 15c | 999.98$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 856 | 34.2%293 W · 563 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Taro Daniel | 16c | 927.56$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.51 | 372 | 30.4%113 W · 259 L | -12.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Taro Daniel | 20c | 849.11$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Taro Daniel | 15c | 829.81$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.68 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36d8…c7c7backed Taro Daniel | 12c | 700$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.31 | 1,228 | 41.1%505 W · 723 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Taro Daniel | 18c | 687.44$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.15 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Taro Daniel | 17c | 562.23$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.7 | 2,523 | 39.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Taro Daniel | 23c | 485.1$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.15 | 2,343 | 51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L | +95.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Taro Daniel | 12c | 382.4$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.89 | 3,256 | 48.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L | -53.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7690…dfcebacked Taro Daniel | 13c | 379.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 346 | 37.9%131 W · 215 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbad…4f53backed Taro Daniel | 17c | 375.9$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 354 | 44.6%158 W · 196 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…c792backed Taro Daniel | 14c | 357.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,504 | 35.1%528 W · 976 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfda…eb15backed Taro Daniel | 14c | 342.86$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc46e…9ed8backed Taro Daniel | 29c | 333.33$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.4 | 372 | 38.2%142 W · 230 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34dc…c7e2backed Taro Daniel | 13c | 300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7820…5b79backed Taro Daniel | 18c | 277.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 205 | 15.6%32 W · 173 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd25a…7f71backed Taro Daniel | 14c | 246.49$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.47 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b35…51b3backed Matteo Berrettini | 72c | 245.71$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.8 | 353 | 60.9%215 W · 138 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f4…8c1ebacked Taro Daniel | 17c | 226$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.34 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x56c5…b3adbacked Taro Daniel | 7c | 221.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fab…708bbacked Taro Daniel | 24c | 204.17$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1,276 | 30.4%388 W · 888 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Taro Daniel | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…7f73backed Taro Daniel | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 191 | 51.8%99 W · 92 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca2…1d74backed Taro Daniel | 20c | 195.59$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.98 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x012d…9db6backed Matteo Berrettini | 79c | 178.3$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.3 | 849 | 68.4%581 W · 268 L | +25.9wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ad…7889backed Matteo Berrettini | 72c | 168.92$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.95 | 560 | 70.7%396 W · 164 L | -14.5wins | -0.03per pick | 73cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb5…a35dbacked Matteo Berrettini | 70c | 142.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.93 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7044…5104backed Taro Daniel | 14c | 138.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +6.7wins | +0.16per pick | 32cpaid | +103.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Matteo Berrettini | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 197 | 44.2%87 W · 110 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Taro Daniel | 21c | 132.09$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Taro Daniel | 13c | 126.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 1,028 | 43.3%445 W · 583 L | -24.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a20…d606backed Matteo Berrettini | 70c | 108$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 926 | 74.6%691 W · 235 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 74cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe46d…8b87backed Taro Daniel | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0df7…1ec1backed Taro Daniel | 24c | 104.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,853 | 57.7%1,069 W · 784 L | +106.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Matteo Berrettini | 79c | 103.85$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42c9…9623backed Taro Daniel | 19c | 101.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 4,703 | 49.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L | +166.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7173…7a4cbacked Matteo Berrettini | 70c | 101.63$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.03 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2439…3ed7backed Taro Daniel | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 128 | 53.9%69 W · 59 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ec…1cc8backed Taro Daniel | 26c | 96.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 323 | 33.4%108 W · 215 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Taro Daniel | 32c | 83.69$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed Taro Daniel | 19c | 82.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 190 | 51.1%97 W · 93 L | +14.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x31dd…7159backed Taro Daniel | 14c | 71.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 903 | 40.2%363 W · 540 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Taro Daniel | 20c | 61.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 2,044 | 53.8%1,100 W · 944 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c7…3b08backed Matteo Berrettini | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 509 | 58%295 W · 214 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35a7…c4eebacked Taro Daniel | 25c | 40.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9888…e6febacked Taro Daniel | 35c | 40.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 2,447 | 45.9%1,123 W · 1,324 L | -12.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6378…4894backed Taro Daniel | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4093…5749backed Matteo Berrettini | 76c | 35.19$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 2,855 | 49.4%1,410 W · 1,445 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Matteo Berrettini | 77c | 32.28$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 1,541 | 49.2%758 W · 783 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe00d…4251backed Matteo Berrettini | 72c | 31.94$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 197 | 61.4%121 W · 76 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf81e…b0c5backed Matteo Berrettini | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc444…5eeabacked Matteo Berrettini | 77c | 25.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 230 | 73.9%170 W · 60 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 78cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9081…8a6ebacked Matteo Berrettini | 80c | 24.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 417 | 68.1%284 W · 133 L | -21.4wins | -0.05per pick | 73cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Valencia: Matteo Berrettini vs Taro Danielthis page
- Berrettini vs. Daniel: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.