Fifa International · resolved market
Croatia leading at halftime?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa093aef9240fb5cba598ad23e23df37e4f5d15e687fb3d62e1ecd0b1a8d044be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,794
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,220
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,794 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x72d7…1b97backed Yes | 30c | 1,336$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.09 | 462 | 23.2%107 W · 355 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf35a…ce87backed Yes | 24c | 662.41$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 70c | 533$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.9 | 2,411 | 53%1,278 W · 1,133 L | +75.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 70c | 371.99$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.19 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf438…de5dbacked Yes | 29c | 341.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 70c | 320.95$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.97 | 2,407 | 37.7%908 W · 1,499 L | -48.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 12c | 299$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.34 | 98 | 29.6%29 W · 69 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 27c | 269.18$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.68 | 1,001 | 53.9%540 W · 461 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 74c | 204.56$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.55 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a0…f89dbacked Yes | 27c | 149.41$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.34 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa383…a2f0backed No | 75c | 143.31$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.48 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +5.4wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 22c | 112.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 277 | 45.1%125 W · 152 L | -19.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9df2…99f5backed Yes | 22c | 111.05$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 160 | 40.6%65 W · 95 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05bc…f3ebbacked Yes | 29c | 83.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 87 | 34.5%30 W · 57 L | -7.4wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 27c | 68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 1,688 | 54.4%918 W · 770 L | +31.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11c9…1184backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 71c | 16.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 2,819 | 44.5%1,255 W · 1,564 L | -36.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Croatia leading at halftime?this page
- Belgium leading at halftime?Yes won
- Croatia vs. Belgium: Draw at halftime?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.