Fifa International · resolved market
Croatia vs. Belgium: Draw at halftime?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf20ecbe528e769c801ae798fefa2c7f254557110162b3c86b7d0b33ab2371dcf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,774
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,895
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,774 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8105…3287backed Yes | 44c | 914.98$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 210 | 48.6%102 W · 108 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d96…7c16backed No | 57c | 765.31$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.08 | 116 | 54.3%63 W · 53 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 30c | 576.45$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.85 | 98 | 29.6%29 W · 69 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x374e…87c9backed Yes | 43c | 465.12$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | +12.5wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 58c | 430.16$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.02 | 2,407 | 37.7%908 W · 1,499 L | -48.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Yes | 43c | 279.07$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 104 | 51.9%54 W · 50 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d59…31dcbacked Yes | 69c | 275.36$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 63c | 247.26$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.85 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked No | 55c | 239.67$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.85 | 597 | 52.1%311 W · 286 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 52c | 234.16$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.09 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 58c | 229.92$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.31 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e7…4697backed Yes | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 234 | 40.2%94 W · 140 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa383…a2f0backed No | 44c | 172.98$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.5 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +5.4wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 56c | 160$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.71 | 1,688 | 54.4%918 W · 770 L | +31.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7dc…6c2cbacked Yes | 43c | 159.04$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40d…d654backed Yes | 45c | 111.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79e1…982dbacked Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca43…b369backed No | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 311 | 56.6%176 W · 135 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05bc…f3ebbacked Yes | 50c | 83.49$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 87 | 34.5%30 W · 57 L | -7.4wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 55c | 73.78$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.55 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb82f…9e1cbacked Yes | 59c | 71.66$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 115 | 52.2%60 W · 55 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9df2…99f5backed No | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 160 | 40.6%65 W · 95 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked No | 46c | 39.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 709 | 48.9%347 W · 362 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 56c | 38.3$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 2,796 | 56.7%1,585 W · 1,211 L | -9.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 53c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 277 | 45.1%125 W · 152 L | -19.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Yes | 47c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb078…289ebacked Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 207 | 56%116 W · 91 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 43c | 30.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked No | 56c | 26.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 508 | 33.3%169 W · 339 L | -35.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Croatia vs. Belgium: Draw at halftime?this page
- Belgium leading at halftime?Yes won
- Croatia leading at halftime?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.