Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham: Western Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa0c4bba2e53c84ae14bff986cbea43dd1da9a87cb9e302cfd961e8a207cbfe39
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Falconsof Team Falcons, Natus Vincere
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,576
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,667
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,576 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7a60…3170backed Team Falcons | 71c | 1,166$827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.19 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -6.4wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed Natus Vincere | 29c | 1,108$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.21 | 465 | 35.1%163 W · 302 L | +22.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcc…7a11backed Natus Vincere | 19c | 1,059$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.89 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19a0…ac39backed Team Falcons | 75c | 1,006$756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.89 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +5.3wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xccf5…42f2backed Natus Vincere | 32c | 940$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.7 | 574 | 55.4%318 W · 256 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd3…3d7abacked Team Falcons | 68c | 499.99$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 290 | 47.9%139 W · 151 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc954…642fbacked Team Falcons | 65c | 402.23$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.9 | 161 | 55.3%89 W · 72 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x064a…9c2fbacked Natus Vincere | 40c | 374.93$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.97 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Team Falcons | 68c | 327.01$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.12 | 805 | 44.6%359 W · 446 L | -25.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Natus Vincere | 33c | 314.95$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.41 | 477 | 48.6%232 W · 245 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ba…c976backed Natus Vincere | 32c | 234.69$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb5…6be6backed Natus Vincere | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 256 | 39.5%101 W · 155 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda12…38d6backed Team Falcons | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb79…6274backed Team Falcons | 61c | 174.09$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.95 | 171 | 52%89 W · 82 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8df0…96a6backed Natus Vincere | 18c | 166.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9718…dd82backed Natus Vincere | 31c | 159.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae1…befbbacked Team Falcons | 68c | 143.39$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.88 | 301 | 55.5%167 W · 134 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1aa…16cfbacked Team Falcons | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 41 | 78%32 W · 9 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde6d…75a6backed Natus Vincere | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Natus Vincere | 45c | 95.67$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.77 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Team Falcons | 55c | 87$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.15 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f6…f506backed Natus Vincere | 35c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfc…4f30backed Natus Vincere | 19c | 66.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 377 | 45.4%171 W · 206 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5338…f428backed Natus Vincere | 35c | 56.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa824…c9fcbacked Natus Vincere | 35c | 51.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 180 | 53.3%96 W · 84 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed Natus Vincere | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40ba…7ea5backed Team Falcons | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 537 | 57.7%310 W · 227 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4a3…3599backed Team Falcons | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Team Falcons | 69c | 48.55$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 735 | 54.7%402 W · 333 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe586…56b7backed Team Falcons | 69c | 33.51$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb43…a8edbacked Natus Vincere | 35c | 31.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x498b…ca86backed Team Falcons | 71c | 30.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 107 | 63.6%68 W · 39 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…240abacked Team Falcons | 74c | 29.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac2…b76ebacked Natus Vincere | 58c | 23.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x833c…7881backed Team Falcons | 72c | 16.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham: Western Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffsthis page
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 WinnerTeam Falcons won
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 WinnerTeam Falcons won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.