Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdad2d8da213ef3c5c02651ec45d543ba9fdd61798409b625602e33312d452c17
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Falconsof Team Falcons, Natus Vincere
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,160
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,732
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,160 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4572…83ffbacked Natus Vincere | 35c | 10,124$3,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,500 | 534 | 51.7%276 W · 258 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19a0…ac39backed Team Falcons | 58c | 6,503$3,803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,700.53 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +5.3wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Team Falcons | 56c | 3,596$1,997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,599.85 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08c2…c023backed Natus Vincere | 64c | 3,053$1,944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,944.46 | 489 | 54.6%267 W · 222 L | +23.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x500f…94bfbacked Team Falcons | 40c | 2,872$1,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,722.42 | 135 | 58.5%79 W · 56 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed Team Falcons | 24c | 2,048$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,553.38 | 547 | 53.6%293 W · 254 L | +22.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…09eebacked Team Falcons | 73c | 1,611$1,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.7 | 551 | 57%314 W · 237 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd3…3d7abacked Team Falcons | 67c | 999.98$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.99 | 290 | 47.9%139 W · 151 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88ec…2065backed Team Falcons | 1c | 969.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$954.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +3,255.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d0…6078backed Team Falcons | 64c | 961.1$613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.17 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Team Falcons | 30c | 943.99$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663.48 | 477 | 48.6%232 W · 245 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ef…1ac6backed Team Falcons | 73c | 685.12$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.98 | 476 | 60.7%289 W · 187 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc75a…1ab2backed Team Falcons | 7c | 620.98$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.78 | 400 | 14.8%59 W · 341 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…46c2backed Natus Vincere | 41c | 620$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.2 | 360 | 54.4%196 W · 164 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b99…8bddbacked Team Falcons | 3c | 518.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.51 | 774 | 58.5%453 W · 321 L | +75.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed Natus Vincere | 25c | 500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 465 | 35.1%163 W · 302 L | +22.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8df0…96a6backed Team Falcons | 69c | 448.05$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.71 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x762d…45a6backed Team Falcons | 18c | 444$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.08 | 99 | 55.6%55 W · 44 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x02d7…0c39backed Natus Vincere | 37c | 350$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 205 | 30.7%63 W · 142 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa824…c9fcbacked Natus Vincere | 43c | 290.99$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 180 | 53.3%96 W · 84 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa420…35bbbacked Team Falcons | 44c | 285$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.32 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x425f…0f7abacked Team Falcons | 10c | 228.87$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.87 | 181 | 54.7%99 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a94…5e99backed Team Falcons | 55c | 221.82$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.82 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa0…ca20backed Team Falcons | 76c | 135.76$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.88 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfc…4f30backed Natus Vincere | 34c | 133.22$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.59 | 377 | 45.4%171 W · 206 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…d9f2backed Team Falcons | 64c | 125$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 463 | 54.6%253 W · 210 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0719…c6b9backed Natus Vincere | 21c | 120$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4a3…3599backed Natus Vincere | 55c | 108.54$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…8229backed Natus Vincere | 34c | 102.94$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 337 | 43.6%147 W · 190 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…aefdbacked Natus Vincere | 33c | 99.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 132 | 38.6%51 W · 81 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed Natus Vincere | 37c | 86.49$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3827…e862backed Team Falcons | 33c | 79.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.39 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +106.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b0…ad2cbacked Team Falcons | 33c | 72.08$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.07 | 210 | 62.4%131 W · 79 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f6…f506backed Natus Vincere | 44c | 70$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6698…e620backed Natus Vincere | 28c | 70$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe22f…fe42backed Team Falcons | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92e6…8222backed Team Falcons | 39c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Team Falcons | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d4…b96cbacked Natus Vincere | 29c | 55.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96f8…2560backed Team Falcons | 73c | 55.06$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 25 | 80%20 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5305…57e8backed Team Falcons | 30c | 52.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc49b…70c0backed Natus Vincere | 23c | 48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 630 | 32.5%205 W · 425 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8478…4355backed Team Falcons | 31c | 45.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.16 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Natus Vincere | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 531 | 39.5%210 W · 321 L | -37.2wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcfaa…cd5fbacked Natus Vincere | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 73 | 65.8%48 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x687c…8c91backed Team Falcons | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03b0…482cbacked Natus Vincere | 70c | 24.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -45%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…2a08backed Natus Vincere | 49c | 23.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9160…de3dbacked Team Falcons | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 115 | 34.8%40 W · 75 L | -14.1wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham: Western Europe Closed Qualifier PlayoffsTeam Falcons won
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 WinnerTeam Falcons won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.