Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab2b4a9c23b8f5de9019591312340a652aaccb1a3b31107e31f5274be01e3947
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Falconsof Team Falcons, Natus Vincere
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,663
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,228
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,663 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc75a…1ab2backed Natus Vincere | 3c | 699.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 400 | 14.8%59 W · 341 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24c6…4a55backed Natus Vincere | 10c | 400$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8478…4355backed Natus Vincere | 17c | 179.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Natus Vincere | 31c | 159.16$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.85 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…8229backed Natus Vincere | 16c | 122.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 337 | 43.6%147 W · 190 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb79…6274backed Team Falcons | 69c | 120$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 171 | 52%89 W · 82 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02d7…0c39backed Natus Vincere | 21c | 119.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 205 | 30.7%63 W · 142 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf391…c013backed Natus Vincere | 18c | 99.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b0…ad2cbacked Team Falcons | 72c | 84.15$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.56 | 210 | 62.4%131 W · 79 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f6…f506backed Natus Vincere | 43c | 70$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Team Falcons | 57c | 70$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74ef…1ac6backed Team Falcons | 73c | 55.85$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 476 | 60.7%289 W · 187 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x687c…8c91backed Team Falcons | 70c | 49.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0719…c6b9backed Natus Vincere | 26c | 43.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2992…541cbacked Team Falcons | 68c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham: Western Europe Closed Qualifier PlayoffsTeam Falcons won
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 WinnerTeam Falcons won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.