CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire vs MANA eSports - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa125cb7c518916937ddb10ba64330f4fb2e0dde9e3600ff128cd134ee5334695
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Eternal Fireof Eternal Fire, MANA eSports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,316
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,316 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Eternal Fire | 75c | 1,606$1,208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.22 | 2,326 | 55.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L | +44.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Eternal Fire | 71c | 1,210$855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355 | 3,096 | 48.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L | +135.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed MANA eSports | 23c | 1,008$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.03 | 2,066 | 41.5%858 W · 1,208 L | -49.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed MANA eSports | 29c | 878.98$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.66 | 2,434 | 44.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L | -64.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a46…ab25backed MANA eSports | 24c | 799.99$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.72 | 115 | 50.4%58 W · 57 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed MANA eSports | 26c | 723$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.12 | 1,033 | 61.6%636 W · 397 L | +87.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee1…f616backed MANA eSports | 25c | 660$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 133 | 32.3%43 W · 90 L | -8.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xccf5…42f2backed Eternal Fire | 77c | 648.05$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.05 | 412 | 60.9%251 W · 161 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Eternal Fire | 64c | 343.05$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.5 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d1…ba29backed MANA eSports | 35c | 322.45$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.18 | 101 | 39.6%40 W · 61 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked MANA eSports | 34c | 301.95$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.14 | 1,573 | 35.3%556 W · 1,017 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked Eternal Fire | 67c | 74.4$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.33 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1769…94efbacked Eternal Fire | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 916 | 48.9%448 W · 468 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39e4…f089backed MANA eSports | 27c | 49.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 321 | 38.3%123 W · 198 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2996…73debacked Eternal Fire | 72c | 41.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed Eternal Fire | 65c | 16.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.73 | 333 | 52.6%175 W · 158 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire vs MANA eSports - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire vs MANA eSports (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #2 PlayoffsEternal Fire won
- Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire vs MANA eSports - Map 2 WinnerEternal Fire won
- Map Handicap: EF (-1.5) vs MANA eSports (+1.5)Eternal Fire won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.