College Football · resolved market
Will Kansas beat UNLV?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa13e620ae21d6aff79ea98c9df639dca41af76dce12ef3e91a0a10ba872d361a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- UNLVof Kansas, UNLV
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,216
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,677
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,216 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa805…83dcbacked UNLV | 26c | 4,588$1,211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,376.9 | 102 | 20.6%21 W · 81 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a14…0762backed UNLV | 47c | 4,203$1,973 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,230.26 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a20…101cbacked Kansas | 1c | 4,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd13…e6f1backed Kansas | 1c | 4,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…742dbacked Kansas | 54c | 3,386$1,816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,816.08 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1856…1964backed Kansas | 73c | 2,000$1,460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,460 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Kansas | 75c | 1,590$1,193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,192.56 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Kansas | 73c | 1,054$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769.55 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…0787backed UNLV | 18c | 1,000$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +85%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe41a…a42dbacked Kansas | 74c | 647.42$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.09 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Kansas | 51c | 620$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.8 | 398 | 47.7%190 W · 208 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked UNLV | 41c | 521.79$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.94 | 242 | 29.3%71 W · 171 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Kansas | 79c | 500$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9adf…d0abbacked Kansas | 56c | 441.37$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3195…a94fbacked Kansas | 57c | 440$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.58 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77cf…0e71backed Kansas | 75c | 400$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Kansas | 73c | 355.36$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259 | 170 | 48.2%82 W · 88 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4975…c492backed Kansas | 78c | 219.73$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.39 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc16d…3e8dbacked UNLV | 60c | 202.5$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…d38ebacked UNLV | 25c | 200$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1823…b0fcbacked UNLV | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.31 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x024f…2ec0backed Kansas | 40c | 157.5$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe87a…6d01backed UNLV | 45c | 124.14$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.5 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f7…039abacked Kansas | 72c | 107.14$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.14 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08e2…e186backed UNLV | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.14 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0b…f9d6backed Kansas | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b70…20a3backed Kansas | 53c | 71.83$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.76 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0db2…048abacked Kansas | 52c | 71$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.57 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec96…b987backed UNLV | 36c | 65$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.85 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f95…8c17backed UNLV | 26c | 45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.45 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +229.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed UNLV | 27c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 473 | 31.5%149 W · 324 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbea9…02f9backed Kansas | 76c | 39.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 65cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…e0c9backed Kansas | 77c | 35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x207a…6fecbacked Kansas | 77c | 32.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Kansas beat UNLV?this page
- Will Kansas win by 9 or more points?No won
- Will there be 59 or more combined points scored?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.