Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will FC Hegelmann win on 2026-07-16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa14adf2ead9b02448ab07927b805eb3796549a038e8c63e07b6c3742b0bc0a84
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,793
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,104
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,793 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 20c | 1,724$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.73 | 2,478 | 33.9%840 W · 1,638 L | -95.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 78c | 1,500$1,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.97 | 1,046 | 50.2%525 W · 521 L | +28.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked No | 72c | 1,037$746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.26 | 558 | 45%251 W · 307 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 28c | 619.75$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.81 | 2,344 | 41.6%976 W · 1,368 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Yes | 21c | 491.81$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.54 | 978 | 46.2%452 W · 526 L | -3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Yes | 22c | 310.12$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.23 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 9c | 180$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 2,175 | 37.6%817 W · 1,358 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 79c | 157$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.85 | 814 | 40.5%330 W · 484 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 153.12$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.69 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 77c | 141.92$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.64 | 969 | 47.5%460 W · 509 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd868…7f60backed Yes | 22c | 134.09$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 45 | 8.9%4 W · 41 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81a9…df08backed No | 78c | 128$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.16 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Yes | 19c | 101.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 324 | 36.4%118 W · 206 L | -20.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e56…d55ebacked Yes | 11c | 90$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -7.3wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa807…cc2ebacked Yes | 20c | 89.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 138 | 39.1%54 W · 84 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…ff44backed Yes | 22c | 78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaffe…7140backed Yes | 21c | 69.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 23c | 62.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 658 | 35.6%234 W · 424 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc95d…d369backed Yes | 23c | 58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +5.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 482 | 49.8%240 W · 242 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked No | 79c | 47$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x083e…81a1backed No | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 16 | 93.8%15 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 77cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 44 | 79.5%35 W · 9 L | +8.0wins | +0.18per pick | 61cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7629…226cbacked No | 80c | 12.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 48 | 68.8%33 W · 15 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Hegelmann win on 2026-07-16?this page
- Will Paide Linnameeskond vs. FC Hegelmann end in a draw?No won
- Will Paide Linnameeskond win on 2026-07-16?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.