Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on August 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa176eb3f9e5f3b0135d76ccdb64f5346b16b805f295c9955ef5c2f0c0b41e3b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,506
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,138
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,506 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcac7…37d8backed Yes | 8c | 1,184$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 26c | 1,009$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.95 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b28…5b76backed Yes | 19c | 391.99$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 134 | 16.4%22 W · 112 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 78c | 349.68$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.38 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 13c | 327.92$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.49 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 74c | 300$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 30c | 299.73$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.74 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabff…6b73backed No | 74c | 289.65$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.31 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x579f…3803backed Yes | 13c | 285.29$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.09 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 72c | 272.55$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.77 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 18c | 173.71$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.89 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8116…465dbacked Yes | 29c | 167.72$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.91 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…c040backed Yes | 12c | 152.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 148 | 32.4%48 W · 100 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 69c | 148.87$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.62 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 70c | 145.83$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74b7…ce5abacked Yes | 15c | 140.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b7…fefdbacked No | 68c | 137.83$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.65 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…b8debacked Yes | 15c | 135$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 72c | 131.99$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.96 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b41…652dbacked No | 80c | 125.28$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 78c | 121.8$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.77 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x438c…986bbacked Yes | 20c | 114.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34f5…edd9backed No | 79c | 100.75$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +81.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 20c | 97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd556…6713backed Yes | 29c | 84.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…858bbacked Yes | 28c | 69.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 75c | 65.86$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 28c | 65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 71c | 62.1$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 75c | 52.58$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 70c | 48$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 24c | 48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f0…835cbacked Yes | 32c | 46.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 109 | 37.6%41 W · 68 L | -9.6wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa747…bebcbacked No | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84e3…3dfdbacked No | 63c | 42.74$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 148 | 78.4%116 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 73c | 41.38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 28c | 39.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 67c | 39.58$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.04 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3f…b631backed Yes | 35c | 35.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x150a…b6b1backed Yes | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -8.7wins | -0.23per pick | 47cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 63c | 28.63$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0d…849cbacked No | 58c | 27.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 78c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 68c | 22.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…3b13backed Yes | 46c | 21.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x913c…c63cbacked No | 66c | 18.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xea34…33bcbacked No | 75c | 16.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.26 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabcc…8ac7backed No | 78c | 15.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.35 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb17a…0f66backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on August 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on August 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C or higher on August 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.