Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on August 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf40c2fb929dee6fe93934bc6768dceb85669fb27286c147a9fc830c9e88fd912
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,014
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,949
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,014 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 58c | 2,006$1,171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,171.33 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 36c | 792.46$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.68 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…11a0backed Yes | 40c | 568.59$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.59 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +23%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 48c | 445.49$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.37 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcac7…37d8backed No | 51c | 356.09$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 66c | 321.95$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.67 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 42c | 300$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 63c | 300$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 40c | 296.99$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.19 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 29c | 266.84$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.26 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 42c | 241.19$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.89 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 15c | 234.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.32 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 26c | 218.75$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.58 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 41c | 206.06$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.58 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 42c | 204.84$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.81 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 64c | 183.05$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.84 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 180.05$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.25 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 171.59$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.44 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefc9…1f0abacked Yes | 40c | 168.4$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.3 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25e5…96bdbacked No | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 67c | 154.73$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.28 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 18c | 149.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.22 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 63c | 141$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.83 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 62c | 122.92$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.64 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 60c | 121.8$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.77 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 12c | 120$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 41c | 114$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.94 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 62c | 113.48$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.26 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 26c | 111.1$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.17 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed Yes | 42c | 102.76$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.6 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e9…0208backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 89 | 47.2%42 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 21c | 98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74b7…ce5abacked Yes | 32c | 94.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.17 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 73c | 92.44$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.78 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3f…b631backed No | 64c | 87.47$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.74 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 74c | 83.51$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.11 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 40c | 79.6$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.76 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f8…c055backed Yes | 52c | 77.37$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.08 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 39c | 73.82$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.22 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 64c | 72.2$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.32 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 59c | 70$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.17 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d64…e3fdbacked Yes | 33c | 69.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.99 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ec…17c6backed Yes | 32c | 62.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.97 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 41c | 61.48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.48 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 37c | 56.16$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.36 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 53c | 50.16$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.55 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf03b…34fdbacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 58c | 47$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 63c | 45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 70c | 43.02$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 43c | 42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 56c | 39.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 33c | 38.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 68c | 38.42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.13 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f8f…4d8abacked Yes | 41c | 36.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.69 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 30c | 36.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32d1…71b4backed No | 75c | 35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 32c | 32.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.22 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x150a…b6b1backed Yes | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -8.7wins | -0.23per pick | 47cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 68c | 28.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 70c | 28.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…9288backed No | 72c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 172 | 62.2%107 W · 65 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 44c | 26.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc95c…6534backed Yes | 78c | 25.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3682…a737backed No | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd556…6713backed Yes | 55c | 24.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 53c | 23.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d5…ce23backed No | 68c | 23.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 150 | 62.7%94 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…8326backed Yes | 75c | 22.28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 55c | 22.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 60c | 20.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce5…6233backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 135 | 59.3%80 W · 55 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4647…d97fbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 105 | 60%63 W · 42 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 65c | 18.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 74c | 15.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xed0c…fccdbacked Yes | 79c | 14.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 126 | 60.3%76 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on August 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C or higher on August 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.