Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Nakashima vs Zverev
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa178e4261e4d0b4034cbea0598a13108606577056a9629a4203583e806520be9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Zverevof Nakashima, Zverev
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,721
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,230
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,721 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Zverev | 59c | 642.25$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.77 | 6,512 | 54.5%3,546 W · 2,966 L | +289.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed9…9949backed Nakashima | 45c | 515.09$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233 | 465 | 53.8%250 W · 215 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Nakashima | 49c | 286.97$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.68 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5085…9bbcbacked Nakashima | 47c | 284.61$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Zverev | 48c | 197.39$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.88 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb58…a62ebacked Zverev | 62c | 172.78$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.73 | 217 | 67.7%147 W · 70 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e25…db26backed Zverev | 73c | 77.62$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.18 | 836 | 61%510 W · 326 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4739…a1c1backed Zverev | 66c | 53.11$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.11 | 226 | 42%95 W · 131 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6508…1077backed Zverev | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 584 | 38.2%223 W · 361 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4139…8622backed Zverev | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Nakashima | 28c | 43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 7,183 | 49.7%3,568 W · 3,615 L | +112.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8583…e3e3backed Nakashima | 51c | 38.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d3…3576backed Zverev | 58c | 34.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Zverev | 54c | 31.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.69 | 314 | 34.4%108 W · 206 L | -25.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x66d9…bef3backed Zverev | 70c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Nakashima vs Zverevthis page
- BNP Paribas Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Alexander ZverevAlexander Zverev won
- Nakashima vs. Zverev: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Nakashima vs. Zverev: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Nakashima (+1.5)Nakashima won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.