Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Nakashima (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe828bc59320fd29a58fba215cdadc46251f9d57985786885b1f5f3c91482f140
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nakashimaof Zverev, Nakashima
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,999
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,999 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0ef0…f14cbacked Zverev | 4c | 2,100$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 6cpaid | +51%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66f0…923bbacked Zverev | 3c | 1,800$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +271.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf26f…8f93backed Zverev | 2c | 1,400$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x78f4…4a4abacked Zverev | 25c | 900$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +5.4wins | +0.22per pick | 23cpaid | +145.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8d94…593ebacked Zverev | 24c | 700$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +7.9wins | +0.33per pick | 25cpaid | +127.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Nakashima | 48c | 446.96$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.5 | 278 | 36.3%101 W · 177 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Zverev | 48c | 431.71$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.39 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2c…90d4backed Nakashima | 55c | 400$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 234 | 54.7%128 W · 106 L | +10.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x246d…c74dbacked Zverev | 57c | 350.57$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 180 | 53.9%97 W · 83 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Nakashima | 44c | 306.61$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.95 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Nakashima | 53c | 301.5$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.1 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…6af2backed Nakashima | 44c | 300$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 128 | 35.2%45 W · 83 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Nakashima | 44c | 259.44$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.33 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa373…b6dcbacked Zverev | 58c | 258.62$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 543 | 48.1%261 W · 282 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Nakashima | 42c | 217.14$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.33 | 237 | 50.6%120 W · 117 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc629…5e51backed Zverev | 54c | 185.65$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 573 | 49.6%284 W · 289 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4537…fd02backed Zverev | 57c | 175.61$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 389 | 51.9%202 W · 187 L | -16.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7f…e826backed Nakashima | 49c | 151.68$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.68 | 693 | 50.5%350 W · 343 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdad…9eaebacked Nakashima | 44c | 150$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 328 | 42.7%140 W · 188 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x581f…9d8ebacked Zverev | 45c | 145.45$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.45 | 121 | 53.7%65 W · 56 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7108…a418backed Zverev | 56c | 145.18$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2958…3974backed Zverev | 57c | 140.35$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Zverev | 53c | 121.89$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 678 | 36%244 W · 434 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Zverev | 51c | 120.51$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.37 | 2,343 | 51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L | +95.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48cf…c7dfbacked Zverev | 55c | 109.09$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 194 | 52.1%101 W · 93 L | -13.6wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3469…3676backed Zverev | 55c | 109.09$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Nakashima | 45c | 106$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.3 | 1,414 | 41.1%581 W · 833 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Zverev | 28c | 104.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 1,870 | 16%299 W · 1,571 L | -314.3wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xf292…1cc7backed Zverev | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 359 | 44.8%161 W · 198 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa77a…e6f9backed Zverev | 72c | 101.6$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.15 | 214 | 48.1%103 W · 111 L | -13.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2590…e38ebacked Zverev | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +4.3wins | +0.20per pick | 8cpaid | +199.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x750d…566bbacked Zverev | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.85 | 163 | 56.4%92 W · 71 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a5…80d4backed Zverev | 44c | 67.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 318 | 53.5%170 W · 148 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe44b…6e0abacked Nakashima | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 220 | 39.1%86 W · 134 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6508…1077backed Zverev | 48c | 45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 584 | 38.2%223 W · 361 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x788f…8c1ebacked Zverev | 70c | 39.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 184 | 60.3%111 W · 73 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Zverev | 54c | 36.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 354 | 39.8%141 W · 213 L | -15.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a5…afc0backed Zverev | 59c | 30.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c8…26aebacked Zverev | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebcb…dd4bbacked Zverev | 54c | 27.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Nakashima | 44c | 27.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.46 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…e309backed Zverev | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1619…ca7bbacked Zverev | 56c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Nakashima (+1.5)this page
- BNP Paribas Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Alexander ZverevAlexander Zverev won
- Nakashima vs. Zverev: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Nakashima vs. Zverev: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Nakashima vs ZverevZverev won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.