Tennis · resolved market
Mayar Sherif vs. Paula Badosa: Total Sets O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa18af43a947d1fbcd6c5034880f9d060adf62f7bb195b1a24ef3f17d5842f7ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Over 2.5of Over 2.5, Under 2.5
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,198
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,844
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,198 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over 2.5 | 79c | 999.95$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.99 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under 2.5 | 58c | 480.31$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.58 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8499…950dbacked Over 2.5 | 42c | 478.5$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.53 | 130 | 43.1%56 W · 74 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf664…c89bbacked Under 2.5 | 3c | 442.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 26cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over 2.5 | 52c | 375.74$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.75 | 178 | 57.3%102 W · 76 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Under 2.5 | 44c | 262.07$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.42 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Under 2.5 | 21c | 242.86$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 3,424 | 39.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L | -12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Under 2.5 | 21c | 214.29$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,356 | 38.3%520 W · 836 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Under 2.5 | 21c | 204.76$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 2,151 | 37.3%802 W · 1,349 L | -27.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc3…0670backed Over 2.5 | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 481 | 44.5%214 W · 267 L | +14.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…af12backed Under 2.5 | 21c | 183.24$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.38 | 2,032 | 46.9%952 W · 1,080 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1e…f992backed Under 2.5 | 21c | 157.14$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 654 | 34.9%228 W · 426 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecf8…74d2backed Under 2.5 | 52c | 129.4$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.29 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Under 2.5 | 52c | 96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 1,837 | 59.2%1,088 W · 749 L | +8.4wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x160a…43d3backed Under 2.5 | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -8.8wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…6bb6backed Over 2.5 | 42c | 30.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9644…d03bbacked Under 2.5 | 58c | 25.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 370 | 47%174 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc1…9a14backed Under 2.5 | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mayar Sherif vs. Paula Badosa: Total Sets O/U 2.5this page
- Hamburg European Open: Mayar Sherif vs Paula BadosaMayar Sherif won
- Set 1 Winner: Sherif vs BadosaSherif won
- Set 2 Winner: Sherif vs BadosaBadosa won
- Set Handicap: Badosa (-1.5) vs Sherif (+1.5)Sherif won
- Set Handicap: Sherif (-1.5) vs Badosa (+1.5)Badosa won
- Sherif vs. Badosa: Match O/U 21.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.