Olympics · resolved market
Women's Group A - Czechia vs. Switzerland
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa18c82c0f28d978ca2f0103c9456e2ff452e47a46217bf84e12d6c33370cceae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Switzerlandof Czechia, Switzerland
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,089
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,493
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,089 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x308c…4e7ebacked Switzerland | 26c | 4,000$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,960 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd097…2a90backed Czechia | 74c | 4,000$2,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,960 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4405…5e1bbacked Czechia | 79c | 3,600$2,844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,844 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85fc…47c8backed Switzerland | 21c | 3,600$756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,844 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +376.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Czechia | 17c | 263.07$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.51 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed Switzerland | 14c | 224.5$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.86per pick | 14cpaid | +614.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8488…588cbacked Switzerland | 28c | 212$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.56 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 19cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Czechia | 60c | 196.66$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Czechia | 40c | 156$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.39 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…3ee2backed Czechia | 75c | 106.36$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.15 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Switzerland | 78c | 95.12$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.21 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -26%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec06…9d24backed Switzerland | 23c | 88.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +47%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04a1…d6e6backed Czechia | 72c | 80.79$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.17 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Switzerland | 20c | 65.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.52 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Czechia | 79c | 60$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f9…86ecbacked Switzerland | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdefd…78c4backed Switzerland | 48c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Czechia | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.