Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Utah State Aggies (-11.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa1952f6dd52d65edac52cf523599ebcd88aeafda34caef7f80260ce4097825b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Utah State Aggiesof Utah State Aggies, Tulane Green Wave
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,210
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,196
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,210 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Tulane Green Wave | 57c | 4,095$2,324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,323.63 | 2,579 | 47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L | -42.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Utah State Aggies | 42c | 3,000$1,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,740 | 369 | 44.2%163 W · 206 L | -19.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea81…eeaebacked Utah State Aggies | 45c | 400$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 1,227 | 27.8%341 W · 886 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Tulane Green Wave | 58c | 249.78$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.83 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Utah State Aggies | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 505 | 46.9%237 W · 268 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Utah State Aggies | 46c | 154$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.46 | 1,124 | 46.4%521 W · 603 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe463…f7b2backed Utah State Aggies | 45c | 139$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.45 | 107 | 48.6%52 W · 55 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Utah State Aggies | 46c | 130$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.2 | 323 | 37.2%120 W · 203 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Utah State Aggies | 43c | 101$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.66 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Utah State Aggies | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Utah State Aggies | 42c | 75$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 1,487 | 43%639 W · 848 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Tulane Green Wave | 61c | 62$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.08 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Utah State Aggies | 45c | 54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 1,074 | 47%505 W · 569 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…7293backed Utah State Aggies | 38c | 53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.86 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Utah State Aggies | 39c | 46.56$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 643 | 22.9%147 W · 496 L | -17.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa9…bad5backed Utah State Aggies | 46c | 46.56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.14 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Tulane Green Wave | 62c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 1,633 | 47.3%773 W · 860 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Utah State Aggies (-11.5)this page
- Spread: Utah State Aggies (-10.5)Utah State Aggies won
- Utah State Aggies vs. Tulane Green WaveUtah State Aggies won
- Utah State Aggies vs. Tulane Green Wave: O/U 152.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.