Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on May 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa1a094d90c65c7e6485b370cee9bd29dc60e46ed9636cefc0462b396da52c5b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,120
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,201
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,120 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 15c | 268.4$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 14c | 240.53$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecc6…b97abacked Yes | 46c | 201.61$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.45 | 175 | 36.6%64 W · 111 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb75…f496backed No | 16c | 187.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 69 | 11.6%8 W · 61 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fe…74bcbacked No | 60c | 170.93$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.76 | 186 | 71%132 W · 54 L | +19.2wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes | 79c | 153.38$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.48 | 244 | 66.8%163 W · 81 L | +20.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 58c | 92.36$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.87 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x879e…e339backed No | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 175 | 55.4%97 W · 78 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb5…d2c8backed No | 77c | 59.61$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.79 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72b0…1579backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 27c | 49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.61 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 30c | 44.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 33c | 39.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 42c | 34.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.82 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0bf…0fb0backed Yes | 62c | 32.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9948…5da1backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 58c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 23.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cff…468bbacked No | 73c | 18.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 162 | 63%102 W · 60 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 63c | 18.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…7e54backed No | 73c | 16.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on May 13?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on May 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.