CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs Lavked - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa1b67854d131c7571d7297b9f9d8d50807f7cc3451d69bfa27e4202711b758f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- ARCREDof ARCRED, Lavked
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,166
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,453
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,166 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1b59…0ba0backed Lavked | 43c | 2,330$1,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,001.88 | 557 | 38.4%214 W · 343 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked ARCRED | 59c | 664.74$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.13 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked ARCRED | 51c | 634.1$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.63 | 3,096 | 48.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L | +135.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked ARCRED | 57c | 437.85$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.62 | 1,398 | 48.4%676 W · 722 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6c…a9b3backed Lavked | 76c | 390.9$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.61 | 1,163 | 54.3%631 W · 532 L | -38.8wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed ARCRED | 28c | 374.75$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.02 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc55…a069backed ARCRED | 57c | 341.82$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.98 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed ARCRED | 58c | 323.99$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.51 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked ARCRED | 18c | 314.23$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.14 | 2,328 | 51.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L | +92.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc104…5faabacked ARCRED | 34c | 295.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.06 | 80 | 20%16 W · 64 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd83…7d7cbacked Lavked | 59c | 266.32$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.7 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked ARCRED | 32c | 247.39$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.1 | 2,604 | 52.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L | +98.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed ARCRED | 25c | 215.24$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.43 | 1,547 | 33.9%524 W · 1,023 L | -73.4wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9be…a0c1backed Lavked | 71c | 208.11$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.94 | 447 | 48.1%215 W · 232 L | +17.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x912e…0eaebacked ARCRED | 57c | 195.47$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.05 | 364 | 34.1%124 W · 240 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a73…a9c8backed ARCRED | 57c | 171.54$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.76 | 696 | 35.3%246 W · 450 L | -49.3wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked ARCRED | 32c | 157$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.71 | 3,910 | 36.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L | -197.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5471…a236backed ARCRED | 32c | 106.37$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.88 | 250 | 42.8%107 W · 143 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc49b…70c0backed ARCRED | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 608 | 38.2%232 W · 376 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Lavked | 66c | 89.29$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.93 | 4,064 | 50.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L | +69.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b45…ac9fbacked ARCRED | 42c | 80.11$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.65 | 389 | 42.4%165 W · 224 L | -15.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d87…8dbbbacked ARCRED | 52c | 76.12$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.79 | 260 | 37.3%97 W · 163 L | -17.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Lavked | 42c | 69.07$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 1,046 | 45%471 W · 575 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef9c…7b3fbacked Lavked | 16c | 61.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a5…c602backed ARCRED | 45c | 58$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 332 | 37%123 W · 209 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked Lavked | 67c | 51.28$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.38 | 1,650 | 32.7%540 W · 1,110 L | -49.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Lavked | 49c | 45.32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 2,061 | 50.7%1,045 W · 1,016 L | -18.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs Lavked - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs Lavked (BO3) - European Pro League Series 6 PlayoffsARCRED won
- Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs Lavked - Map 1 WinnerARCRED won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.