CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs Lavked (BO3) - European Pro League Series 6 Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4b73ceb0a91c230e6eaab8b9dc36a2f95bc62490c925d8b2cac64863bc3dbb0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- ARCREDof ARCRED, Lavked
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,603
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,335
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,603 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Lavked | 41c | 2,101$868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$868.4 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed ARCRED | 65c | 1,265$817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.47 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Lavked | 34c | 1,256$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.43 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb6c…d38ebacked ARCRED | 57c | 1,016$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.57 | 79 | 40.5%32 W · 47 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed ARCRED | 70c | 993.55$695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.14 | 780 | 43.7%341 W · 439 L | -21.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36d8…c7c7backed ARCRED | 57c | 952.98$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.75 | 576 | 41.5%239 W · 337 L | -8.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3878…1ab8backed ARCRED | 80c | 895.09$716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.02 | 178 | 40.4%72 W · 106 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9795…1b84backed ARCRED | 76c | 650.61$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6c…a9b3backed Lavked | 46c | 631.65$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.27 | 1,163 | 54.3%631 W · 532 L | -38.8wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd154…9c74backed ARCRED | 68c | 604.32$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.2 | 640 | 46.3%296 W · 344 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5471…a236backed ARCRED | 68c | 537.14$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.86 | 250 | 42.8%107 W · 143 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7771…009fbacked ARCRED | 54c | 506.95$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.13 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked ARCRED | 65c | 498.46$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.57 | 630 | 38.6%243 W · 387 L | -26.4wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Lavked | 27c | 424.93$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.68 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed ARCRED | 66c | 370.87$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.85 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a5…c602backed Lavked | 36c | 354.83$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.05 | 332 | 37%123 W · 209 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d87…8dbbbacked ARCRED | 70c | 324.34$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.63 | 260 | 37.3%97 W · 163 L | -17.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed ARCRED | 51c | 306.08$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.97 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c71…c0e5backed Lavked | 36c | 267.11$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.16 | 364 | 46.7%170 W · 194 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Lavked | 34c | 228.96$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.81 | 719 | 51%367 W · 352 L | +28.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed Lavked | 29c | 228.53$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.77 | 1,216 | 40.1%488 W · 728 L | -65.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51ae…ce30backed ARCRED | 56c | 182.25$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec69…6fbabacked ARCRED | 63c | 177.99$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.86 | 664 | 46.4%308 W · 356 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8359…5944backed Lavked | 21c | 170.34$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.77 | 697 | 32%223 W · 474 L | -46.0wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…4397backed ARCRED | 59c | 165.32$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.78 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.9wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6722…865fbacked Lavked | 44c | 164.73$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.48 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked ARCRED | 67c | 161.21$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.26 | 3,202 | 45.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L | -79.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…3c72backed ARCRED | 53c | 159.4$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.22 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1791…3e87backed ARCRED | 56c | 152.25$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.99 | 399 | 46.4%185 W · 214 L | -12.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f1…8680backed Lavked | 44c | 150$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 2,522 | 43%1,085 W · 1,437 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed ARCRED | 65c | 140.11$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.49 | 2,061 | 50.7%1,045 W · 1,016 L | -18.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Lavked | 37c | 133.48$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.82 | 4,064 | 50.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L | +69.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdffe…b4d3backed Lavked | 35c | 121.1$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.84 | 146 | 30.8%45 W · 101 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaee4…471fbacked ARCRED | 55c | 109$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.05 | 357 | 52.9%189 W · 168 L | +22.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Lavked | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 328 | 45.1%148 W · 180 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1769…94efbacked ARCRED | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 916 | 48.9%448 W · 468 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xced8…221ebacked Lavked | 46c | 99.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 700 | 38.9%272 W · 428 L | -29.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfce…5c3ebacked ARCRED | 53c | 97.57$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.86 | 85 | 37.6%32 W · 53 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…9a4cbacked ARCRED | 75c | 97.33$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.79 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -4.2wins | -0.20per pick | 68cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed ARCRED | 53c | 94.26$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.3 | 739 | 48.4%358 W · 381 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2409…215ebacked Lavked | 42c | 91.18$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.62 | 127 | 46.5%59 W · 68 L | -11.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed ARCRED | 66c | 88.85$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.21 | 2,774 | 24.5%681 W · 2,093 L | -295.8wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3169…6dccbacked Lavked | 31c | 84.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 102 | 47.1%48 W · 54 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x956d…b750backed ARCRED | 59c | 82.66$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.89 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7516…cec5backed ARCRED | 61c | 80.62$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed ARCRED | 70c | 77.58$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.27 | 2,362 | 46.6%1,100 W · 1,262 L | -53.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Lavked | 40c | 69.18$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.53 | 1,315 | 51.1%672 W · 643 L | -99.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x65cf…5cdebacked Lavked | 40c | 67.48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed ARCRED | 67c | 65.36$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.77 | 5,287 | 31.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L | -383.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30b9…0847backed Lavked | 44c | 64.13$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Lavked | 24c | 57.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 3,096 | 48.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L | +135.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4362…78a2backed Lavked | 45c | 57.51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5db7…a264backed Lavked | 22c | 56.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…186dbacked ARCRED | 53c | 52.96$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.89 | 359 | 47.9%172 W · 187 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Lavked | 39c | 50.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 1,281 | 37.8%484 W · 797 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e0…cf2dbacked ARCRED | 56c | 49.45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.77 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Lavked | 36c | 48.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 2,102 | 16.8%353 W · 1,749 L | -286.5wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Lavked | 31c | 48.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 270 | 15.2%41 W · 229 L | -41.9wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d8…37ecbacked Lavked | 32c | 46.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1634…b32fbacked Lavked | 44c | 43.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d7…406dbacked Lavked | 34c | 42.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 109 | 45%49 W · 60 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf512…5198backed ARCRED | 67c | 36.48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 164 | 64.6%106 W · 58 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…9d28backed ARCRED | 56c | 35.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3473…b05cbacked ARCRED | 54c | 35.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.14 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc52…628ebacked ARCRED | 58c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61a0…0516backed ARCRED | 63c | 31.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 68cpaid | -38%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e71…b787backed ARCRED | 56c | 30.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe84…54ddbacked ARCRED | 52c | 30.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 387 | 53.2%206 W · 181 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8e…08f9backed Lavked | 48c | 29.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 370 | 50.5%187 W · 183 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked ARCRED | 54c | 28.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 844 | 54.3%458 W · 386 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2f…98dcbacked ARCRED | 56c | 27.82$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82c1…a5a2backed ARCRED | 72c | 27.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef9c…7b3fbacked ARCRED | 57c | 25.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb1…c96ebacked ARCRED | 79c | 24.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e96…f2debacked ARCRED | 52c | 21.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ad…68c9backed ARCRED | 53c | 21.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 240 | 51.7%124 W · 116 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8616…3bb0backed ARCRED | 57c | 19.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 557 | 49.7%277 W · 280 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2d…d7f8backed ARCRED | 56c | 19.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked ARCRED | 67c | 15.23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 406 | 35.7%145 W · 261 L | -33.0wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -31%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs Lavked (BO3) - European Pro League Series 6 Playoffsthis page
- Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs Lavked - Map 1 WinnerARCRED won
- Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs Lavked - Map 2 WinnerARCRED won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.