Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Passion UA vs Team Nemesis - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa1bf969e54eac6258871debd8a9ec940a6f0fe469accfa4f69a8ee1b7743cbe0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Nemesisof Passion UA, Team Nemesis
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,869
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,125
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,869 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb569…5695backed Passion UA | 51c | 2,889$1,460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,459.6 | 190 | 47.9%91 W · 99 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Team Nemesis | 56c | 1,867$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$817.58 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Team Nemesis | 62c | 1,212$753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.59 | 341 | 46.6%159 W · 182 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Passion UA | 18c | 500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Team Nemesis | 51c | 490.38$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.29 | 897 | 49.6%445 W · 452 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed Team Nemesis | 60c | 333.33$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.33 | 234 | 65%152 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x073a…6f98backed Team Nemesis | 64c | 294.77$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.71 | 203 | 61.6%125 W · 78 L | +22.0wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbe…7d07backed Team Nemesis | 57c | 290$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.7 | 254 | 44.5%113 W · 141 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Passion UA | 42c | 258.5$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.57 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9be…8b35backed Team Nemesis | 58c | 258.5$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.57 | 83 | 49.4%41 W · 42 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Team Nemesis | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 128 | 62.5%80 W · 48 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9270…7c9ebacked Team Nemesis | 53c | 127.65$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Passion UA | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca81…f2abbacked Passion UA | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Passion UA | 43c | 96$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.28 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd138…7058backed Passion UA | 46c | 86.17$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 115 | 51.3%59 W · 56 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb261…f3a0backed Team Nemesis | 53c | 80$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 75 | 54.7%41 W · 34 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Passion UA | 20c | 63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b41…2c02backed Passion UA | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 726 | 37.5%272 W · 454 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Team Nemesis | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x544e…2d9fbacked Team Nemesis | 50c | 58$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6365…df4ebacked Passion UA | 48c | 41.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 225 | 38.7%87 W · 138 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…1adebacked Passion UA | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 339 | 45.1%153 W · 186 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe48…5895backed Passion UA | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Passion UA vs Team Nemesis - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Passion UA vs Team Nemesis (BO3)Team Nemesis won
- Dota 2: Passion UA vs Team Nemesis - Game 2 WinnerTeam Nemesis won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.