Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Passion UA vs Team Nemesis (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf179baac64dfc950e9fd4c716fc2dc05b3dbb879d7f1348de7a9f495cc8614c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Nemesisof Passion UA, Team Nemesis
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,817
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,643
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,817 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x06c0…e618backed Team Nemesis | 62c | 17,917$11,136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,781.26 | 57 | 61.4%35 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Passion UA | 38c | 12,538$4,711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,710.71 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…8a2bbacked Team Nemesis | 62c | 4,012$2,482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,530.34 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x303b…53cabacked Passion UA | 1c | 3,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Passion UA | 19c | 2,893$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.71 | 341 | 46.6%159 W · 182 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d2f…ef1abacked Passion UA | 38c | 2,631$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.82 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Passion UA | 36c | 2,259$809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$808.51 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Passion UA | 31c | 1,665$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.39 | 897 | 49.6%445 W · 452 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b26…c9afbacked Team Nemesis | 58c | 1,628$942 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$686.26 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Passion UA | 39c | 1,015$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.36 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…bab9backed Passion UA | 42c | 999.99$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.99 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb61…8e04backed Passion UA | 42c | 779.05$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.5 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0341…a679backed Passion UA | 37c | 664.22$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | +8.2wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Passion UA | 41c | 600.11$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.41 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Passion UA | 39c | 515$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.85 | 82 | 23.2%19 W · 63 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Passion UA | 42c | 500.11$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.05 | 130 | 27.7%36 W · 94 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8052…1124backed Team Nemesis | 57c | 500$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215 | 171 | 46.8%80 W · 91 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd96…e623backed Team Nemesis | 62c | 497.77$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.15 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Passion UA | 33c | 377.98$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.42 | 301 | 38.9%117 W · 184 L | -20.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Passion UA | 41c | 343.68$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.53 | 378 | 32.5%123 W · 255 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Passion UA | 40c | 300$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Passion UA | 38c | 300$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Passion UA | 7c | 249.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x215b…3e6cbacked Passion UA | 37c | 199.98$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d2…312fbacked Passion UA | 20c | 186.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.66 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked Team Nemesis | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ad…be4ebacked Team Nemesis | 70c | 168$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.81 | 132 | 51.5%68 W · 64 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x419b…6ea1backed Team Nemesis | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 224 | 53.1%119 W · 105 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa157…8641backed Team Nemesis | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Team Nemesis | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 81 | 60.5%49 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Passion UA | 39c | 150$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb80d…0ac1backed Team Nemesis | 58c | 150$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc99d…5d6bbacked Passion UA | 29c | 136.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a1e…c2eabacked Passion UA | 42c | 131.37$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.18 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d54…8d9abacked Passion UA | 44c | 125$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +26%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e53…5c9dbacked Passion UA | 22c | 113.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 96 | 68.8%66 W · 30 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4da…1772backed Passion UA | 42c | 106.04$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.54 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ed…57ebbacked Team Nemesis | 56c | 103$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.32 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca81…f2abbacked Team Nemesis | 80c | 101$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Passion UA | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x115d…1691backed Team Nemesis | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 142 | 44.4%63 W · 79 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…91bbbacked Passion UA | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -3.3wins | -0.48per pick | 62cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa226…5092backed Passion UA | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Passion UA | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8330…b88fbacked Passion UA | 21c | 99.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…22b2backed Team Nemesis | 58c | 78.1$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 236 | 50.4%119 W · 117 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a5d…99ebbacked Team Nemesis | 66c | 72.95$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.95 | 146 | 68.5%100 W · 46 L | +14.3wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x073a…6f98backed Team Nemesis | 67c | 60.98$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.13 | 203 | 61.6%125 W · 78 L | +22.0wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x72c4…ee6cbacked Passion UA | 24c | 59.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa511…7c9abacked Team Nemesis | 57c | 55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.65 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa825…2ef0backed Passion UA | 35c | 54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…1f13backed Passion UA | 35c | 45.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73da…8c9bbacked Team Nemesis | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…604ebacked Team Nemesis | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 393 | 51.1%201 W · 192 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20b7…65a3backed Passion UA | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6e…fad0backed Team Nemesis | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95c4…a93bbacked Passion UA | 44c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73c4…a92dbacked Passion UA | 30c | 33.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9904…c9b1backed Team Nemesis | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 45 | 77.8%35 W · 10 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked Passion UA | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 200 | 46%92 W · 108 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…1adebacked Passion UA | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 339 | 45.1%153 W · 186 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Passion UA | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74f4…d0f6backed Team Nemesis | 70c | 28.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 70cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05ba…2117backed Passion UA | 44c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Passion UA | 38c | 26.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62b7…f260backed Passion UA | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 207 | 35.3%73 W · 134 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8204…61d9backed Passion UA | 44c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4863…dfa4backed Team Nemesis | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3099…d252backed Team Nemesis | 79c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.73 | 75 | 70.7%53 W · 22 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Passion UA vs Team Nemesis (BO3)this page
- Dota 2: Passion UA vs Team Nemesis - Game 1 WinnerTeam Nemesis won
- Dota 2: Passion UA vs Team Nemesis - Game 2 WinnerTeam Nemesis won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.