TailMyPicks
Market

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Natus Vincereof Zero Tenacity, Natus Vincere
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$30,891
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$36,952

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,891 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xef26…05babacked Zero Tenacity34c8,385$2,889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,888.9625446.1%117 W · 137 L+11.9wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Zero Tenacity0c3,716$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.626169.7%60 W · 556 L-2.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid-53.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9b5…09eebacked Natus Vincere67c3,119$2,085 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,034.2655157%314 W · 237 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5165…175bbacked Natus Vincere65c2,531$1,644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$887.221735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-43.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Natus Vincere72c1,805$1,307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$497.4916665.7%109 W · 57 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Natus Vincere63c1,404$885 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$518.612,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked Zero Tenacity36c1,307$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46699844.4%443 W · 555 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60f1…9562backed Natus Vincere72c1,137$824 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.022060%12 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick71cpaid-18.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xacf6…41fcbacked Zero Tenacity40c1,044$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41460646.9%284 W · 322 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed Natus Vincere59c1,000$595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$405.0632854.9%180 W · 148 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f4f…46c2backed Natus Vincere60c660.17$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.636054.4%196 W · 164 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba05…f8c0backed Zero Tenacity30c600.41$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.4149133.6%165 W · 326 L+1.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1a8…1b66backed Natus Vincere70c600$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1801369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.18per pick51cpaid+57.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfbc2…514cbacked Natus Vincere67c597.15$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.1533845.6%154 W · 184 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bea…5d50backed Zero Tenacity34c511.15$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.5247748.6%232 W · 245 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcc0…6872backed Zero Tenacity26c489.3$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.222445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-18.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xefee…d2b3backed Zero Tenacity35c428.91$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.0712256.6%69 W · 53 L-7.5wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-13.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x76d2…d0b4backed Natus Vincere72c399.98$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1121100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d39…b8a0backed Zero Tenacity23c394.85$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.932934.5%10 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-32.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5b0…60e7backed Natus Vincere74c351.35$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.35560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0588…8f18backed Zero Tenacity28c327.83$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.041513.3%2 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick24cpaid-52%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdfd7…215ebacked Zero Tenacity45c326.01$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74ef…1ac6backed Natus Vincere64c312.5$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.547660.7%289 W · 187 L-0.2wins0.00per pick61cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Natus Vincere66c220.88$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.0473841.7%308 W · 430 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17ca…87d1backed Natus Vincere68c201.22$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.8919552.8%103 W · 92 L-15.2wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-15%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x30db…07c3backed Zero Tenacity37c167.17$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.5154445.8%249 W · 295 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82bf…de71backed Natus Vincere57c138$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.3454753.6%293 W · 254 L+22.9wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf32d…bbbbbacked Natus Vincere74c136$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.8761057.9%353 W · 257 L+2.8wins0.00per pick57cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0150…0128backed Natus Vincere74c135.14$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.14650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-28.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0942…f42fbacked Zero Tenacity26c105.58$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.885438.9%21 W · 33 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-26.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f98…d18bbacked Zero Tenacity19c103.66$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.19333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-42.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64a3…cc70backed Natus Vincere74c103$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.783100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+94.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8031…67e0backed Zero Tenacity18c100$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1873743.6%321 W · 416 L-10.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaee7…1e5bbacked Natus Vincere66c100$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3418649.5%92 W · 94 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb82d…5d1ebacked Natus Vincere74c95$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.7580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.27per pick53cpaid+63.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5fd8…a5bebacked Zero Tenacity33c80.9$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2720339.9%81 W · 122 L-0.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28ad…0614backed Natus Vincere65c80.3$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.723540%14 W · 21 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-28%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x596a…7a0fbacked Zero Tenacity27c80$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.670236.6%257 W · 445 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadaf…aefdbacked Zero Tenacity29c78.17$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6713238.6%51 W · 81 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6bb…d732backed Natus Vincere62c69.4$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.162445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x56ae…f1c4backed Zero Tenacity33c59.73$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43b3…6193backed Natus Vincere57c54.33$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.369756.7%55 W · 42 L+9.5wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+7.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x90e4…e026backed Natus Vincere63c49.31$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.25666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+48.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f3a…7dcbbacked Zero Tenacity43c46.09$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8220952.6%110 W · 99 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6385…e191backed Natus Vincere74c39.69$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.43475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Natus Vincere68c31.25$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1060542.6%258 W · 347 L-14.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a10…cf6cbacked Zero Tenacity32c31.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102544%11 W · 14 L+2.2wins+0.09per pick35cpaid+19.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf05e…180bbacked Natus Vincere60c30$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.04666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Natus Vincere68c29.25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.2986949%426 W · 443 L-3.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72ea…d4f2backed Natus Vincere69c28.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.991435.7%5 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.17per pick52cpaid-32.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x425f…0f7abacked Natus Vincere71c28.17$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.1718154.7%99 W · 82 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-3.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x727d…1589backed Natus Vincere71c24.79$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.168037.5%30 W · 50 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-19.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.