Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa1d29c2d6023f165c6501ceb252665756015d7d803bc5ef35020cf1c49b8391a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Natus Vincereof Zero Tenacity, Natus Vincere
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,891
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,952
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,891 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xef26…05babacked Zero Tenacity | 34c | 8,385$2,889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,888.96 | 254 | 46.1%117 W · 137 L | +11.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Zero Tenacity | 0c | 3,716$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…09eebacked Natus Vincere | 67c | 3,119$2,085 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,034.26 | 551 | 57%314 W · 237 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5165…175bbacked Natus Vincere | 65c | 2,531$1,644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$887.22 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d4…2bacbacked Natus Vincere | 72c | 1,805$1,307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.49 | 166 | 65.7%109 W · 57 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Natus Vincere | 63c | 1,404$885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.61 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked Zero Tenacity | 36c | 1,307$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60f1…9562backed Natus Vincere | 72c | 1,137$824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.02 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacf6…41fcbacked Zero Tenacity | 40c | 1,044$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414 | 606 | 46.9%284 W · 322 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed Natus Vincere | 59c | 1,000$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.06 | 328 | 54.9%180 W · 148 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…46c2backed Natus Vincere | 60c | 660.17$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.6 | 360 | 54.4%196 W · 164 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Zero Tenacity | 30c | 600.41$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.41 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…1b66backed Natus Vincere | 70c | 600$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc2…514cbacked Natus Vincere | 67c | 597.15$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.15 | 338 | 45.6%154 W · 184 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Zero Tenacity | 34c | 511.15$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.52 | 477 | 48.6%232 W · 245 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Zero Tenacity | 26c | 489.3$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.22 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefee…d2b3backed Zero Tenacity | 35c | 428.91$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.07 | 122 | 56.6%69 W · 53 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76d2…d0b4backed Natus Vincere | 72c | 399.98$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d39…b8a0backed Zero Tenacity | 23c | 394.85$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.93 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b0…60e7backed Natus Vincere | 74c | 351.35$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.35 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0588…8f18backed Zero Tenacity | 28c | 327.83$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.04 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -52%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfd7…215ebacked Zero Tenacity | 45c | 326.01$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ef…1ac6backed Natus Vincere | 64c | 312.5$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 476 | 60.7%289 W · 187 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Natus Vincere | 66c | 220.88$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.04 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17ca…87d1backed Natus Vincere | 68c | 201.22$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.89 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | -15.2wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -15%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed Zero Tenacity | 37c | 167.17$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.51 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed Natus Vincere | 57c | 138$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.34 | 547 | 53.6%293 W · 254 L | +22.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked Natus Vincere | 74c | 136$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.87 | 610 | 57.9%353 W · 257 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0150…0128backed Natus Vincere | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0942…f42fbacked Zero Tenacity | 26c | 105.58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f98…d18bbacked Zero Tenacity | 19c | 103.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64a3…cc70backed Natus Vincere | 74c | 103$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.78 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +94.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8031…67e0backed Zero Tenacity | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 737 | 43.6%321 W · 416 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…1e5bbacked Natus Vincere | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 186 | 49.5%92 W · 94 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb82d…5d1ebacked Natus Vincere | 74c | 95$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd8…a5bebacked Zero Tenacity | 33c | 80.9$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…0614backed Natus Vincere | 65c | 80.3$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Zero Tenacity | 27c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…aefdbacked Zero Tenacity | 29c | 78.17$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 132 | 38.6%51 W · 81 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6bb…d732backed Natus Vincere | 62c | 69.4$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.16 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ae…f1c4backed Zero Tenacity | 33c | 59.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b3…6193backed Natus Vincere | 57c | 54.33$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.36 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x90e4…e026backed Natus Vincere | 63c | 49.31$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3a…7dcbbacked Zero Tenacity | 43c | 46.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 209 | 52.6%110 W · 99 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6385…e191backed Natus Vincere | 74c | 39.69$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Natus Vincere | 68c | 31.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a10…cf6cbacked Zero Tenacity | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf05e…180bbacked Natus Vincere | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Natus Vincere | 68c | 29.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…d4f2backed Natus Vincere | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x425f…0f7abacked Natus Vincere | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 181 | 54.7%99 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed Natus Vincere | 71c | 24.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Natus Vincere (BO3)Natus Vincere won
- Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 WinnerNatus Vincere won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.