TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Natus Vincere (BO3)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Natus Vincereof Zero Tenacity, Natus Vincere
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$46,813
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$49,352

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,813 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2219…a5e9backed Zero Tenacity1c4,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50320%0 W · 32 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1464…5e75backed Natus Vincere80c1,992$1,588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403.5112351.2%63 W · 60 L-7.0wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-12.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Zero Tenacity5c1,859$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.9755751.7%288 W · 269 L+16.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe42b…7ea9backed Zero Tenacity15c1,762$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.4646535.1%163 W · 302 L+22.9wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+18.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x500f…94bfbacked Zero Tenacity25c1,584$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.2713558.5%79 W · 56 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Zero Tenacity19c1,579$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.5873841.7%308 W · 430 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Zero Tenacity18c1,500$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27039936.8%147 W · 252 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5eab…d552backed Zero Tenacity7c1,428$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.396725.4%17 W · 50 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick28cpaid+4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x120a…1e2ebacked Zero Tenacity23c1,337$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.51250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-18%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Zero Tenacity20c1,322$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.411855.1%65 W · 53 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x750c…7d14backed Zero Tenacity23c1,276$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.4830%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xba05…f8c0backed Zero Tenacity26c1,221$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.4549133.6%165 W · 326 L+1.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4da…1772backed Zero Tenacity19c999.98$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1907047.1%33 W · 37 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a80…87d7backed Zero Tenacity22c994$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.68425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-68.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe523…9b1fbacked Natus Vincere77c985$758 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.55366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad69…7397backed Zero Tenacity21c955$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.5551140.3%206 W · 305 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5984…76ebbacked Zero Tenacity20c875$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17520827.9%58 W · 150 L-11.2wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-19.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x624f…7592backed Zero Tenacity22c860$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bcf…3123backed Natus Vincere77c857$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b4c…be98backed Zero Tenacity22c855$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.1333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0068…12d2backed Zero Tenacity22c841$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked Zero Tenacity21c777$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.178146.9%38 W · 43 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7bea…d593backed Natus Vincere78c756$590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.322100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a9d…ed50backed Zero Tenacity23c730$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.9250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Zero Tenacity2c727.62$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.146169.7%60 W · 556 L-2.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid-53.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x439f…69a5backed Natus Vincere78c619$483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89f3…dfffbacked Zero Tenacity19c615.12$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.694445.5%20 W · 24 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6bbf…d298backed Natus Vincere78c615$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.3250%1 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick79cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9160…0492backed Natus Vincere78c603$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.66366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick59cpaid-6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe813…0cbfbacked Zero Tenacity22c498$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.56333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-49.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a43…61d9backed Natus Vincere77c480$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.4250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-35.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x74ef…1ac6backed Natus Vincere78c477.31$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.3147660.7%289 W · 187 L-0.2wins0.00per pick61cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99a9…4763backed Zero Tenacity22c473$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.0620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x20b2…f114backed Zero Tenacity5c459.24$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9615131.8%48 W · 103 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick33cpaid+2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17cd…7423backed Natus Vincere74c458.92$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.3211947.1%56 W · 63 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+15.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Natus Vincere74c455.39$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.62,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0341…a679backed Natus Vincere75c401.54$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.548155.6%45 W · 36 L+8.2wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+37.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Zero Tenacity3c400.35$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.263735.1%13 W · 24 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-35.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x36ec…4a35backed Zero Tenacity15c400$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86dc…d24dbacked Natus Vincere77c390$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5165…175bbacked Zero Tenacity9c382.35$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.611735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-43.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe149…27b7backed Natus Vincere77c340$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.2250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-35.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad15…ee7fbacked Zero Tenacity18c324.89$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fa9…cf22backed Natus Vincere77c291$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x596a…7a0fbacked Zero Tenacity10c290.53$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6370236.6%257 W · 445 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe463…f7b2backed Zero Tenacity20c280$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5620838.9%81 W · 127 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Natus Vincere80c263$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.8430138.9%117 W · 184 L-20.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-32.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9258…6458backed Natus Vincere78c262$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.642100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick72cpaid+41%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa61d…df1abacked Natus Vincere80c250$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$505147.1%24 W · 27 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x911d…9886backed Natus Vincere78c241$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.02366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick58cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1066…7849backed Natus Vincere78c240$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.8250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf87f…43a5backed Natus Vincere78c240$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.82100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5691…16a7backed Natus Vincere78c238$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.36250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea28…1cabbacked Natus Vincere78c238$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.36333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-57.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x157b…5b8cbacked Natus Vincere78c236$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.922100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+115.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x874b…2357backed Natus Vincere78c233$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.26475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbfd…c226backed Natus Vincere74c203.42$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.89757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dc0…699abacked Zero Tenacity6c200$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1264123.4%150 W · 491 L-18.6wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Natus Vincere77c191.92$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.1479341.7%331 W · 462 L-13.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a10…cf6cbacked Zero Tenacity20c190$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382544%11 W · 14 L+2.2wins+0.09per pick35cpaid+19.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xec6c…23c7backed Zero Tenacity14c178.14$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.823351.5%17 W · 16 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick46cpaid-5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x56ae…f1c4backed Zero Tenacity26c153.85$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Zero Tenacity21c152.07$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9360542.6%258 W · 347 L-14.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4ba…c5d8backed Zero Tenacity20c149.25$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.852231.8%7 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x28ad…0614backed Zero Tenacity20c134.52$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.463540%14 W · 21 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-28%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed Zero Tenacity12c131$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5332854.9%180 W · 148 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x83d3…9f1bbacked Natus Vincere74c120$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.2955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.16per pick40cpaid+21.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xadaf…aefdbacked Zero Tenacity24c100$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2413238.6%51 W · 81 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Zero Tenacity18c57.96$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.561,90147.6%905 W · 996 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7719…80b6backed Natus Vincere78c25.19$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.441080%8 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick73cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xebe2…e4d2backed Natus Vincere74c21$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.467753.2%41 W · 36 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaee7…1e5bbacked Natus Vincere76c17.99$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.3218649.5%92 W · 94 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.