Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Natus Vincere (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6994c10ab967abe6f0aac8aa073f3df1e4cfd5b553fc8a1d62377bf99fb3e666
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Natus Vincereof Zero Tenacity, Natus Vincere
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,813
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,352
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,813 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2219…a5e9backed Zero Tenacity | 1c | 4,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Natus Vincere | 80c | 1,992$1,588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.51 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Zero Tenacity | 5c | 1,859$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.97 | 557 | 51.7%288 W · 269 L | +16.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed Zero Tenacity | 15c | 1,762$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.46 | 465 | 35.1%163 W · 302 L | +22.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x500f…94bfbacked Zero Tenacity | 25c | 1,584$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.27 | 135 | 58.5%79 W · 56 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Zero Tenacity | 19c | 1,579$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.58 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Zero Tenacity | 18c | 1,500$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 399 | 36.8%147 W · 252 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eab…d552backed Zero Tenacity | 7c | 1,428$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.39 | 67 | 25.4%17 W · 50 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x120a…1e2ebacked Zero Tenacity | 23c | 1,337$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Zero Tenacity | 20c | 1,322$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.4 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x750c…7d14backed Zero Tenacity | 23c | 1,276$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Zero Tenacity | 26c | 1,221$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.45 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4da…1772backed Zero Tenacity | 19c | 999.98$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a80…87d7backed Zero Tenacity | 22c | 994$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe523…9b1fbacked Natus Vincere | 77c | 985$758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad69…7397backed Zero Tenacity | 21c | 955$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.55 | 511 | 40.3%206 W · 305 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5984…76ebbacked Zero Tenacity | 20c | 875$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 208 | 27.9%58 W · 150 L | -11.2wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x624f…7592backed Zero Tenacity | 22c | 860$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bcf…3123backed Natus Vincere | 77c | 857$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b4c…be98backed Zero Tenacity | 22c | 855$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0068…12d2backed Zero Tenacity | 22c | 841$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Zero Tenacity | 21c | 777$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.17 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bea…d593backed Natus Vincere | 78c | 756$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9d…ed50backed Zero Tenacity | 23c | 730$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Zero Tenacity | 2c | 727.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x439f…69a5backed Natus Vincere | 78c | 619$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…dfffbacked Zero Tenacity | 19c | 615.12$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.69 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bbf…d298backed Natus Vincere | 78c | 615$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9160…0492backed Natus Vincere | 78c | 603$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.66 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe813…0cbfbacked Zero Tenacity | 22c | 498$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a43…61d9backed Natus Vincere | 77c | 480$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74ef…1ac6backed Natus Vincere | 78c | 477.31$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.31 | 476 | 60.7%289 W · 187 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a9…4763backed Zero Tenacity | 22c | 473$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20b2…f114backed Zero Tenacity | 5c | 459.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 151 | 31.8%48 W · 103 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17cd…7423backed Natus Vincere | 74c | 458.92$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.32 | 119 | 47.1%56 W · 63 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Natus Vincere | 74c | 455.39$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.6 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0341…a679backed Natus Vincere | 75c | 401.54$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.54 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | +8.2wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Zero Tenacity | 3c | 400.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36ec…4a35backed Zero Tenacity | 15c | 400$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86dc…d24dbacked Natus Vincere | 77c | 390$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5165…175bbacked Zero Tenacity | 9c | 382.35$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.61 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe149…27b7backed Natus Vincere | 77c | 340$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad15…ee7fbacked Zero Tenacity | 18c | 324.89$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa9…cf22backed Natus Vincere | 77c | 291$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Zero Tenacity | 10c | 290.53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.63 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe463…f7b2backed Zero Tenacity | 20c | 280$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 208 | 38.9%81 W · 127 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Natus Vincere | 80c | 263$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.84 | 301 | 38.9%117 W · 184 L | -20.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9258…6458backed Natus Vincere | 78c | 262$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 72cpaid | +41%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa61d…df1abacked Natus Vincere | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x911d…9886backed Natus Vincere | 78c | 241$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.02 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1066…7849backed Natus Vincere | 78c | 240$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf87f…43a5backed Natus Vincere | 78c | 240$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5691…16a7backed Natus Vincere | 78c | 238$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea28…1cabbacked Natus Vincere | 78c | 238$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x157b…5b8cbacked Natus Vincere | 78c | 236$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +115.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x874b…2357backed Natus Vincere | 78c | 233$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.26 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfd…c226backed Natus Vincere | 74c | 203.42$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.89 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Zero Tenacity | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Natus Vincere | 77c | 191.92$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.14 | 793 | 41.7%331 W · 462 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a10…cf6cbacked Zero Tenacity | 20c | 190$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed Zero Tenacity | 14c | 178.14$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.82 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56ae…f1c4backed Zero Tenacity | 26c | 153.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Zero Tenacity | 21c | 152.07$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.93 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Zero Tenacity | 20c | 149.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…0614backed Zero Tenacity | 20c | 134.52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed Zero Tenacity | 12c | 131$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 328 | 54.9%180 W · 148 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83d3…9f1bbacked Natus Vincere | 74c | 120$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…aefdbacked Zero Tenacity | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 132 | 38.6%51 W · 81 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Zero Tenacity | 18c | 57.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7719…80b6backed Natus Vincere | 78c | 25.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe2…e4d2backed Natus Vincere | 74c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…1e5bbacked Natus Vincere | 76c | 17.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 186 | 49.5%92 W · 94 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Natus Vincere (BO3)this page
- Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 WinnerNatus Vincere won
- Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 WinnerNatus Vincere won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.