Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x934c1957c29e74e59d9647c5da78329602e895757e2bafccda3694f6ddb31554

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Natus Vincereof Zero Tenacity, Natus Vincere
Resolved: Jan 11, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $57,462
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $77,660

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,462 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Dota2
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xef26…05babacked Zero Tenacity	33c	17,378$5,820 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,819.75	254	46.1%117 W · 137 L	+11.9wins	+0.05per pick	41cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6218…f388backed Natus Vincere	72c	11,459$8,239 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,220.17	17	35.3%6 W · 11 L	-1.1wins	-0.07per pick	42cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2219…a5e9backed Zero Tenacity	2c	5,700$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112	32	0%0 W · 32 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60f1…9562backed Natus Vincere	80c	1,894$1,513 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$380.65	20	60%12 W · 8 L	-2.2wins	-0.11per pick	71cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Zero Tenacity	23c	1,460$329 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$328.64	738	41.7%308 W · 430 L	-5.2wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2cad…eb66backed Natus Vincere	77c	1,201$923 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$278.85	97	50.5%49 W · 48 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2f1f…aa39backed Zero Tenacity	55c	976.01$541 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$541.04	450	61.6%277 W · 173 L	+9.2wins	+0.02per pick	60cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x500f…94bfbacked Natus Vincere	48c	902.4$433 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$469.25	135	58.5%79 W · 56 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	55cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x74ef…1ac6backed Natus Vincere	79c	791.41$624 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$167.41	476	60.7%289 W · 187 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	61cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed Natus Vincere	71c	720.08$510 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$210.27	328	54.9%180 W · 148 L	+11.8wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe99e…0084backed Natus Vincere	79c	651.02$512 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$138.87	876	45.7%400 W · 476 L	-4.7wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc75a…1ab2backed Zero Tenacity	11c	646.4$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.52	400	14.8%59 W · 341 L	+11.2wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x762d…45a6backed Natus Vincere	76c	624$477 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$147.28	99	55.6%55 W · 44 L	+8.8wins	+0.09per pick	47cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xba05…f8c0backed Zero Tenacity	30c	600$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180	491	33.6%165 W · 326 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd1a8…1b66backed Natus Vincere	70c	600$420 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$180	13	69.2%9 W · 4 L	+2.3wins	+0.18per pick	51cpaid	+57.5%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe42b…7ea9backed Zero Tenacity	24c	495.83$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119	465	35.1%163 W · 302 L	+22.9wins	+0.05per pick	30cpaid	+18.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd01a…bf29backed Natus Vincere	76c	408.33$310 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$98.75	59	62.7%37 W · 22 L	+2.3wins	+0.04per pick	59cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b99…8bddbacked Zero Tenacity	13c	370$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47	774	58.5%453 W · 321 L	+75.1wins	+0.10per pick	49cpaid	+12.4%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc49b…70c0backed Zero Tenacity	9c	302.99$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.79	630	32.5%205 W · 425 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	32cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe02f…669fbacked Zero Tenacity	10c	300$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	72	26.4%19 W · 53 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	28cpaid	-42.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4499…d102backed Natus Vincere	78c	256.41$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.41	21	47.6%10 W · 11 L	-2.5wins	-0.12per pick	60cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Zero Tenacity	25c	229$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.25	2,378	47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L	+15.8wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed Zero Tenacity	7c	219.22$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.35	613	2.1%13 W · 600 L	-23.4wins	-0.04per pick	6cpaid	-76.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfbc2…514cbacked Zero Tenacity	20c	210.49$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	338	45.6%154 W · 184 L	+6.4wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6dc0…699abacked Zero Tenacity	23c	200.41$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.4	641	23.4%150 W · 491 L	-18.6wins	-0.03per pick	26cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf32d…bbbbbacked Natus Vincere	76c	200$152 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48	610	57.9%353 W · 257 L	+2.8wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca6d…492bbacked Zero Tenacity	23c	200$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61d9…e0cebacked Zero Tenacity	14c	145.82$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.51	61	50.8%31 W · 30 L	+7.2wins	+0.12per pick	39cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa6bb…d732backed Natus Vincere	80c	126.66$101 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.38	24	45.8%11 W · 13 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x596a…7a0fbacked Zero Tenacity	22c	120$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.84	702	36.6%257 W · 445 L	+4.8wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	0%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked Zero Tenacity	23c	117.25$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.95	531	39.5%210 W · 321 L	-37.2wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0942…f42fbacked Zero Tenacity	17c	105$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.65	54	38.9%21 W · 33 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x727d…1589backed Zero Tenacity	27c	103.79$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.26	80	37.5%30 W · 50 L	-3.5wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc85d…6832backed Zero Tenacity	11c	100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.2	124	38.7%48 W · 76 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-10%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8031…67e0backed Zero Tenacity	22c	100$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	737	43.6%321 W · 416 L	-10.8wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Natus Vincere	76c	95.87$73 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.05	869	49%426 W · 443 L	-3.5wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xefee…d2b3backed Natus Vincere	76c	95.16$72 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.66	122	56.6%69 W · 53 L	-7.5wins	-0.06per pick	63cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9a3b…9194backed Natus Vincere	49c	92.24$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.04	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+18.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Natus Vincere	74c	90$66 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.59	605	42.6%258 W · 347 L	-14.6wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Zero Tenacity	15c	78.94$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.93	328	6.4%21 W · 307 L	-102.4wins	-0.31per pick	38cpaid	-72.6%equal weight	18-0.29 edge/pick
0x5fd8…a5bebacked Zero Tenacity	26c	75.78$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	203	39.9%81 W · 122 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x28ad…0614backed Zero Tenacity	23c	70.89$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.64	35	40%14 W · 21 L	-2.0wins	-0.06per pick	46cpaid	-28%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x10e4…4113backed Natus Vincere	79c	60.83$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.83	28	82.1%23 W · 5 L	+3.4wins	+0.12per pick	70cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xde2a…6bfebacked Natus Vincere	72c	60$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.8	128	32%41 W · 87 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5165…175bbacked Zero Tenacity	18c	56.7$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.07	17	35.3%6 W · 11 L	-1.9wins	-0.11per pick	47cpaid	-43.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1720…747fbacked Natus Vincere	73c	49.99$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.5	97	51.5%50 W · 47 L	-4.9wins	-0.05per pick	57cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd33…6c0dbacked Zero Tenacity	55c	45.76$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.97	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.14per pick	64cpaid	-32.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc393…590abacked Natus Vincere	48c	41.67$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.67	238	49.6%118 W · 120 L	-6.9wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8af5…4bbabacked Zero Tenacity	25c	40$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	23	47.8%11 W · 12 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa825…2ef0backed Natus Vincere	70c	39.99$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12	49	40.8%20 W · 29 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb203…8e45backed Natus Vincere	66c	31.36$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.76	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+1.4wins	+0.46per pick	54cpaid	+110.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc954…642fbacked Natus Vincere	73c	29.63$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8	161	55.3%89 W · 72 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x425f…0f7abacked Natus Vincere	74c	27.03$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.03	181	54.7%99 W · 82 L	-5.0wins	-0.03per pick	57cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f3a…7dcbbacked Natus Vincere	77c	25.24$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.75	209	52.6%110 W · 99 L	-7.3wins	-0.04per pick	56cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd25…03b9backed Zero Tenacity	54c	24$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.91	45	51.1%23 W · 22 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Natus Vincere	74c	18$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.63	32	50%16 W · 16 L	-1.6wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winnerthis page
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Natus Vincere (BO3)Natus Vincere won
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 WinnerNatus Vincere won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event