Fifa International · resolved market
Will Norway vs. Israel end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa1f238595d20f613b617d7b276a99ec951a9b6586fe807d8468cc1df47f31d60
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,556
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,353
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,556 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd2b2…d101backed Yes | 15c | 5,048$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8490…2525backed Yes | 13c | 2,154$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88de…1091backed Yes | 13c | 1,987$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.44 | 210 | 16.7%35 W · 175 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c73…0fd5backed Yes | 2c | 1,423$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a69…a466backed Yes | 14c | 942.86$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…2f2dbacked Yes | 13c | 769.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Yes | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 274 | 34.3%94 W · 180 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 13c | 417.57$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.21 | 203 | 22.7%46 W · 157 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Yes | 15c | 333.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe094…fe93backed Yes | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f5…30bcbacked Yes | 15c | 270$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 346 | 30.1%104 W · 242 L | -21.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e79…2d68backed Yes | 14c | 214.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 105 | 41.9%44 W · 61 L | +9.9wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +41%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1334…3c35backed Yes | 14c | 178.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 15c | 134.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 12c | 116$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 779 | 9.6%75 W · 704 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Norway vs. Israel end in a draw?this page
- Will Israel win on 2025-10-11?No won
- Will Norway win on 2025-10-11?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.