Fifa International · resolved market
Will Israel win on 2025-10-11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94c5fbda58520eb9457e67fe4ac2877faebb6f1a31849033f1e34a9b9093b68b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,121
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,918
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,121 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 8c | 6,692$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.77 | 605 | 11.4%69 W · 536 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c73…0fd5backed Yes | 1c | 5,379$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…f0e7backed Yes | 9c | 3,469$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 42cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd267…9dc6backed Yes | 8c | 2,924$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.49 | 93 | 22.6%21 W · 72 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8490…2525backed Yes | 8c | 2,500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 8c | 2,268$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.22 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88de…1091backed Yes | 7c | 1,623$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.63 | 210 | 16.7%35 W · 175 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x269c…d7debacked Yes | 7c | 1,522$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89d0…d63cbacked Yes | 9c | 1,126$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d6c…cf4cbacked Yes | 9c | 1,100$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b3…e7e1backed Yes | 2c | 832.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3be…1015backed Yes | 8c | 651.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Yes | 9c | 555.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0521…cc4abacked Yes | 9c | 555.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8714…4750backed Yes | 9c | 466.67$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e17…ee84backed Yes | 9c | 444.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84fd…2f81backed Yes | 7c | 400$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 57 | 19.3%11 W · 46 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaca3…cb95backed Yes | 7c | 400$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29bf…08a1backed Yes | 9c | 333.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 296 | 45.6%135 W · 161 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe094…fe93backed Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d5…9e42backed Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4c…dc84backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe13b…e29dbacked Yes | 9c | 243.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…5aa0backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d4…17babacked Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f0d…5de2backed Yes | 10c | 203.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 101 | 40.6%41 W · 60 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2699…29f6backed Yes | 7c | 180$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe35f…f7f8backed Yes | 9c | 166.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 7c | 143$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 789 | 27.5%217 W · 572 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf3…213abacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel win on 2025-10-11?this page
- Will Norway vs. Israel end in a draw?No won
- Will Norway win on 2025-10-11?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.