Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on August 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa214290ed09b81604ae0987567f9f745058cd665d09e54a7238ea0016382675d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,174
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,132
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,174 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x398c…c935backed Yes | 63c | 567.02$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.54 | 217 | 35%76 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 32c | 181.03$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.82 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 67c | 154.84$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.59 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9484…a173backed Yes | 37c | 147.59$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.14 | 130 | 25.4%33 W · 97 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed No | 7c | 144.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 67c | 137.96$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.85 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 66c | 137.15$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 34c | 103.13$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.18 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 63c | 95.24$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 44c | 85.71$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.45 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 44c | 80.09$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.09 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 34c | 75.71$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.91 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 34c | 73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.53 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 59c | 67.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.88 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 65c | 64.87$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.04 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 52c | 64$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.55 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 37c | 63.01$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.88 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ed…0d9abacked Yes | 40c | 49.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.41 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 28c | 47.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 30c | 36.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.82 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 64c | 30.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 33c | 30.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.37 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 75c | 29.42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 70c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a16…6004backed Yes | 64c | 25.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 33 | 69.7%23 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 67c | 25.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed0c…fccdbacked Yes | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 126 | 60.3%76 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…35c9backed No | 62c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 65c | 23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 68c | 22.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 56c | 21.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked Yes | 78c | 20.39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…3017backed No | 66c | 20.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 152 | 58.6%89 W · 63 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 192 | 59.4%114 W · 78 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3e…5a86backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c9b6backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 91 | 58.2%53 W · 38 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 67c | 17.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64ce…3c70backed No | 69c | 16.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on August 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 29°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 30°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on August 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.