TailMyPicks
Menu
Market

Tennis · resolved market

ITF Taipei: Hikaru Sato vs Haruka Kaji

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Haruka Kajiof Hikaru Sato, Haruka Kaji
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$12,444
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,885

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,444 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc07d…b1dfbacked Haruka Kaji63c5,296$3,355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,941.052,38355.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L+49.3wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Hikaru Sato40c3,468$1,394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,394.122,77653.7%1,491 W · 1,285 L+69.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+0.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Hikaru Sato17c1,235$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.566,79236.9%2,505 W · 4,287 L-98.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x75a7…2d61backed Hikaru Sato16c898.64$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.0171725.2%181 W · 536 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9c9…6686backed Hikaru Sato36c441.31$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.881,33746%615 W · 722 L+23.1wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7df6…558bbacked Hikaru Sato17c300$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.54810.4%5 W · 43 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-42.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ce8…4dd6backed Hikaru Sato37c270.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10057950.9%295 W · 284 L+2.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Hikaru Sato33c213.96$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.356,51254.5%3,546 W · 2,966 L+289.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+26.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Hikaru Sato8c208.38$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.395,49848.5%2,667 W · 2,831 L+10.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Hikaru Sato12c178.9$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.851,87016%299 W · 1,571 L-314.3wins-0.17per pick33cpaid-65.6%equal weight32-0.17 edge/pick
0x2ad5…62ffbacked Hikaru Sato28c165.79$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.331,22823.1%284 W · 944 L-164.0wins-0.13per pick36cpaid-47%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x9455…7defbacked Hikaru Sato35c142.86$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501,00049.8%498 W · 502 L+19.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14f3…0796backed Hikaru Sato21c128.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.611,23446.3%571 W · 663 L+8.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Haruka Kaji67c100.01$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.898,70242.6%3,708 W · 4,994 L-165.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xadf5…20f8backed Hikaru Sato36c99.97$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.994337.2%16 W · 27 L-0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Hikaru Sato13c93.82$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.96,57446.2%3,037 W · 3,537 L-45.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e8a…a117backed Hikaru Sato24c92.07$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.399657.3%55 W · 41 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6318…46b1backed Hikaru Sato44c90.9$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405,32528.8%1,533 W · 3,792 L-21.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c97…5c66backed Hikaru Sato35c85.71$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3048355.1%266 W · 217 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2688…9197backed Haruka Kaji56c81.02$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.6533658.3%196 W · 140 L+17.2wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf66e…14b7backed Hikaru Sato32c80$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4872755.6%404 W · 323 L+27.9wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xef2c…be40backed Hikaru Sato23c72.14$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.37958.2%46 W · 33 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-10.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xba1a…85febacked Haruka Kaji56c53.57$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.5772651.8%376 W · 350 L-12.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26c2…0cdfbacked Hikaru Sato25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1074646.1%344 W · 402 L-30.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xabbc…04a3backed Haruka Kaji57c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.918957.7%109 W · 80 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x349e…867bbacked Hikaru Sato39c25.85$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.275350.5%380 W · 373 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.