Tennis · resolved market
ITF Taipei: Hikaru Sato vs Haruka Kaji
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa22054119b7c555d0e7be4802ac6333e36d3539d0344e7620df1519c980f1130
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Haruka Kajiof Hikaru Sato, Haruka Kaji
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,444
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,885
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,444 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Haruka Kaji | 63c | 5,296$3,355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,941.05 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Hikaru Sato | 40c | 3,468$1,394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,394.12 | 2,776 | 53.7%1,491 W · 1,285 L | +69.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Hikaru Sato | 17c | 1,235$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.56 | 6,792 | 36.9%2,505 W · 4,287 L | -98.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75a7…2d61backed Hikaru Sato | 16c | 898.64$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.01 | 717 | 25.2%181 W · 536 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…6686backed Hikaru Sato | 36c | 441.31$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.88 | 1,337 | 46%615 W · 722 L | +23.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…558bbacked Hikaru Sato | 17c | 300$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce8…4dd6backed Hikaru Sato | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 579 | 50.9%295 W · 284 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Hikaru Sato | 33c | 213.96$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.35 | 6,512 | 54.5%3,546 W · 2,966 L | +289.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Hikaru Sato | 8c | 208.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 5,498 | 48.5%2,667 W · 2,831 L | +10.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Hikaru Sato | 12c | 178.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 1,870 | 16%299 W · 1,571 L | -314.3wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Hikaru Sato | 28c | 165.79$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.33 | 1,228 | 23.1%284 W · 944 L | -164.0wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -47%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9455…7defbacked Hikaru Sato | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,000 | 49.8%498 W · 502 L | +19.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Hikaru Sato | 21c | 128.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 1,234 | 46.3%571 W · 663 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Haruka Kaji | 67c | 100.01$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.89 | 8,702 | 42.6%3,708 W · 4,994 L | -165.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadf5…20f8backed Hikaru Sato | 36c | 99.97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Hikaru Sato | 13c | 93.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 6,574 | 46.2%3,037 W · 3,537 L | -45.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…a117backed Hikaru Sato | 24c | 92.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 96 | 57.3%55 W · 41 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Hikaru Sato | 44c | 90.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5,325 | 28.8%1,533 W · 3,792 L | -21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c97…5c66backed Hikaru Sato | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 483 | 55.1%266 W · 217 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2688…9197backed Haruka Kaji | 56c | 81.02$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.65 | 336 | 58.3%196 W · 140 L | +17.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Hikaru Sato | 32c | 80$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 727 | 55.6%404 W · 323 L | +27.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef2c…be40backed Hikaru Sato | 23c | 72.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 79 | 58.2%46 W · 33 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba1a…85febacked Haruka Kaji | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 726 | 51.8%376 W · 350 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Hikaru Sato | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 746 | 46.1%344 W · 402 L | -30.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabbc…04a3backed Haruka Kaji | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 189 | 57.7%109 W · 80 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Hikaru Sato | 39c | 25.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 753 | 50.5%380 W · 373 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- ITF Taipei: Hikaru Sato vs Haruka Kajithis page
- Set 1 Winner: Sato vs KajiKaji won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.