Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Pipsqueak+4 - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa230dce5201a01f89fe000d21a2c464a0099d0cb7b2118048b3b42db683c2fca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- L1ga Teamof L1ga Team, Pipsqueak+4
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,083
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,465
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,083 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x47bd…bc9dbacked L1ga Team | 80c | 2,401$1,921 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.44 | 410 | 55.6%228 W · 182 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed Pipsqueak+4 | 33c | 2,116$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.99 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed Pipsqueak+4 | 18c | 1,827$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.44 | 465 | 35.1%163 W · 302 L | +22.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked L1ga Team | 62c | 1,430$881 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.74 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab8…a331backed Pipsqueak+4 | 52c | 618.75$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.82 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…1e5bbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 186 | 49.5%92 W · 94 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56fc…affbbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 255 | 47.8%122 W · 133 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf3…1bb5backed L1ga Team | 54c | 494.78$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.6 | 283 | 41%116 W · 167 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed L1ga Team | 48c | 349.16$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.56 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4f…5459backed Pipsqueak+4 | 52c | 289.43$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 110 | 51.8%57 W · 53 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02d7…0c39backed Pipsqueak+4 | 27c | 170$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 205 | 30.7%63 W · 142 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc954…642fbacked L1ga Team | 72c | 134.22$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.98 | 161 | 55.3%89 W · 72 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9be…8b35backed L1ga Team | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 83 | 49.4%41 W · 42 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1f…aa39backed Pipsqueak+4 | 29c | 74.28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 450 | 61.6%277 W · 173 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 176 | 47.2%83 W · 93 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad22…10dcbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 46c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…afe5backed L1ga Team | 61c | 42.69$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked L1ga Team | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked L1ga Team | 78c | 30.45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…3e3dbacked L1ga Team | 76c | 22.62$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…8de5backed L1ga Team | 68c | 16.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked L1ga Team | 75c | 14.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.69 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Pipsqueak+4 - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Pipsqueak+4 (BO3)L1ga Team won
- Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Pipsqueak+4 - Game 1 Winner Pipsqueak+4 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.