Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C or higher on March 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa2722c4b6a919f12899dda75f3948f0cf32d05cfb612f318ff18882f3b098e78
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,132
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,132 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 31c | 662.31$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.15 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…334ebacked Yes | 3c | 627.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 50c | 389.35$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.95 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9f…8e7dbacked No | 10c | 375.66$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.93 | 216 | 31%67 W · 149 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 4c | 343$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.28 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 42c | 319.36$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.21 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbd…e8e7backed Yes | 5c | 302.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 27c | 296.65$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.79 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 10c | 278.78$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9575backed Yes | 58c | 172.54$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8209…62b6backed Yes | 32c | 161.51$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.78 | 96 | 25%24 W · 72 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 72c | 116.85$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.58 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 37c | 103.93$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.54 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9887…fe5cbacked Yes | 25c | 98.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcc…b8dfbacked Yes | 42c | 92.07$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.35 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 27c | 91.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cde…d91bbacked Yes | 30c | 90$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 16c | 87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…41dfbacked No | 74c | 84.6$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.76 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -5.1wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee9e…c1bbbacked No | 13c | 84.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.87per pick | 13cpaid | +656.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 47c | 82.09$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 49c | 76.5$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.26 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 28c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b39…22f7backed Yes | 59c | 67.78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 63 | 19%12 W · 51 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91f6…c4fbbacked No | 78c | 64.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +97.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 63c | 63.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.07 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 59c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.87 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…66f9backed Yes | 41c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed No | 75c | 54.37$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.37 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xda7b…3c9fbacked No | 52c | 51.72$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.83 | 125 | 67.2%84 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc744…955cbacked No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ce…4bc5backed Yes | 63c | 46.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x03eb…47b0backed No | 79c | 44.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed No | 62c | 42.85$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 46c | 42.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.99 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 73c | 42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x437f…05cabacked Yes | 28c | 40.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 58c | 39.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bef…9080backed Yes | 71c | 39.23$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -3.6wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 42c | 38.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 32c | 35.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 60c | 31.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e22…1b31backed No | 56c | 30.9$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 76 | 75%57 W · 19 L | +11.8wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked No | 55c | 30.66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.93 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14dc…f468backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed No | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 50c | 29.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed No | 54c | 27.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 46c | 27.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.81 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdfc…bebfbacked Yes | 55c | 25.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1b24…6e4abacked No | 50c | 25.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac7b…620fbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30e8…38b0backed Yes | 78c | 14.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9726…1b0dbacked No | 72c | 13.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C or higher on March 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 18°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 19°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 20°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on March 25?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.