Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on March 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2525565e61ecdb8f43750eb420727dbbc411a25196c56b123b0a398ee53bff82
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,063
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,063 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe019…f862backed Yes | 14c | 1,037$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$893.28 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 16c | 482.84$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.56 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 3c | 458$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.26 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380 | 133 | 15%20 W · 113 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4864…9438backed No | 75c | 397.6$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 67cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 45c | 386.66$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.72 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f1…710bbacked Yes | 46c | 304.98$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.25 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x292b…9427backed Yes | 40c | 259.99$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.16 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb98c…8f64backed No | 56c | 229.19$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.36 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 5c | 194.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 17c | 192.17$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.67 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 22c | 187.81$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.81 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 40c | 183.48$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.72 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9271…19eabacked Yes | 65c | 153.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.87 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 33c | 148$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.49 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 30c | 144.82$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.06 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b9…cea8backed Yes | 65c | 120$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd077…46c0backed No | 20c | 118.93$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 70c | 115.51$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.02 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 64c | 114.85$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 14c | 111.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 46c | 84.19$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.53 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 67c | 71.38$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.86 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf96…9009backed Yes | 45c | 68.52$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 47c | 64.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 35c | 63.26$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.94 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 33c | 62.54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.9 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 61.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.86 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 36c | 59.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2e…2581backed Yes | 76c | 59.17$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +26%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9575backed Yes | 35c | 57.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.07 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 56.96$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.97 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea9…7927backed No | 66c | 45.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.11 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed Yes | 30c | 44.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed Yes | 32c | 44.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.25 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked Yes | 34c | 43.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.64 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ce…4bc5backed Yes | 35c | 37.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.65 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 35.93$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked No | 57c | 34.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 44c | 34.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed Yes | 43c | 34.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.54 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03d8…5e9abacked Yes | 62c | 32.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +22%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 47c | 32.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes | 40c | 29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 55c | 23.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe03a…439fbacked No | 69c | 21.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 189 | 10.6%20 W · 169 L | -87.5wins | -0.46per pick | 57cpaid | -84%equal weight | 5-0.41 edge/pick |
| 0xbdfc…bebfbacked No | 67c | 21.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x963b…273dbacked No | 75c | 21.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 76cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 77c | 19.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x920d…af4bbacked No | 60c | 18.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 199 | 70.4%140 W · 59 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on March 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 18°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 19°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 20°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C or higher on March 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.