Tennis · resolved market
ASB Classic: Xinyu Wang vs Caty McNally
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa276fa18747dcaea5dea32dc0621811a21714269a2dfe5534e604afff5dc300d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Wangof Wang, McNally
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,098
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,604
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,098 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed McNally | 1c | 8,339$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.59 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Wang | 56c | 2,026$1,139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$886.57 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked McNally | 43c | 1,693$733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$732.68 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f78…bfcabacked McNally | 4c | 1,534$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.93 | 87 | 13.8%12 W · 75 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e7…caa8backed McNally | 1c | 1,300$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 108 | 5.6%6 W · 102 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked McNally | 38c | 1,294$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.44 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked McNally | 37c | 1,237$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.59 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…477abacked McNally | 45c | 1,050$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.5 | 177 | 41.8%74 W · 103 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked McNally | 49c | 888.86$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.59 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0919…fcbcbacked McNally | 3c | 880$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 29cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x046c…2a9cbacked Wang | 57c | 502.05$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.88 | 352 | 47.2%166 W · 186 L | -23.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Wang | 50c | 406$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203 | 220 | 21.8%48 W · 172 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc88d…1da9backed Wang | 36c | 400$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258 | 79 | 34.2%27 W · 52 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb4b…0fb5backed Wang | 56c | 356.68$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.68 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.44per pick | 31cpaid | +119.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1607…79bebacked Wang | 19c | 300$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243 | 102 | 8.8%9 W · 93 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…cc27backed McNally | 20c | 288$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.03 | 255 | 42%107 W · 148 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Wang | 57c | 284.38$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.15 | 1,218 | 41.1%500 W · 718 L | -30.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0627…4301backed McNally | 24c | 278.41$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…6f9abacked Wang | 48c | 278$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.56 | 930 | 55.8%519 W · 411 L | +23.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Wang | 55c | 244.53$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.94 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked McNally | 64c | 242.99$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.49 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Wang | 27c | 227$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.46 | 656 | 47.6%312 W · 344 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed McNally | 52c | 218$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.36 | 421 | 41.8%176 W · 245 L | -12.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc44…3b40backed McNally | 40c | 198$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.18 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7163…3601backed Wang | 58c | 175.11$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.69 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x087d…7609backed Wang | 50c | 158.69$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +98.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17db…9c40backed McNally | 56c | 142.86$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…985ebacked McNally | 78c | 130.81$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.68 | 2,145 | 54.2%1,162 W · 983 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19f8…98f9backed Wang | 77c | 130.65$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 108 | 62%67 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Wang | 23c | 128.6$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.67 | 1,379 | 16.4%226 W · 1,153 L | -108.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x689a…ab74backed Wang | 56c | 120$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +80.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2816…6ad7backed Wang | 48c | 112$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.24 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | -9.7wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked McNally | 54c | 94.54$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.98 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0599…3490backed Wang | 67c | 89.55$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Wang | 49c | 73.7$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.69 | 884 | 55%486 W · 398 L | +37.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e82…86f6backed McNally | 55c | 67.45$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9318…a645backed McNally | 59c | 65.34$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.78 | 186 | 59.7%111 W · 75 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd881…ea25backed Wang | 57c | 61.88$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +90.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed McNally | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 341 | 54.3%185 W · 156 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x554f…afb4backed Wang | 37c | 53.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.74 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ada…43b0backed Wang | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 238 | 52.1%124 W · 114 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e7…6031backed McNally | 45c | 36.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb78…13c1backed McNally | 70c | 32.88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Wang | 45c | 32.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e5…2244backed McNally | 80c | 12.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.